tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-89492242163414185762024-02-06T18:59:16.022-08:00Twins Baseball ClubhouseA blog dedicated to balanced analysis of Minnesota Twins baseball.JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-21877764366685027432012-08-01T11:21:00.000-07:002012-08-01T11:21:31.121-07:00Twins Hold Firm at Deadline<link href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cehoye%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel="File-List"></link><o:smarttagtype name="City" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="place" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><style>
<!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:SimSun;
panose-1:2 1 6 0 3 1 1 1 1 1;
mso-font-alt:宋体;
mso-font-charset:134;
mso-generic-font-family:auto;
mso-font-format:other;
mso-font-pitch:variable;
mso-font-signature:1 135135232 16 0 262144 0;}
@font-face
{font-family:"\@SimSun";
panose-1:2 1 6 0 3 1 1 1 1 1;
mso-font-charset:134;
mso-generic-font-family:auto;
mso-font-pitch:variable;
mso-font-signature:3 135135232 16 0 262145 0;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{mso-style-parent:"";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;}
@page Section1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;
mso-header-margin:.5in;
mso-footer-margin:.5in;
mso-paper-source:0;}
div.Section1
{page:Section1;}
-->
</style>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The trade deadline came and passed at 4pm EST yesterday,
with the Twins making no major moves despite being in the midst of a poor
season for the second straight year. While other struggling teams such as the
Phillies, Astros and Cubs cleaned house, the Twins chose to stand pat and while
this has drawn the ire of many Twins fans, it points to the quality of GM Terry
Ryan and his rebuilding plan.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Francisco Liriano trade has already drawn a considerable
amount of criticism from Twins fans; ultimately the Twins had very little
choice. In what turned out to be Liriano’s last start in a Twins uniform, he
was shellacked by the White Sox for 7 ER in 2.2 IP. Oh yeah, and 25 major
league scouts were there watching. Twins fans disappointed by the return gained
for their mercurial ace were buying into a perceived value for Liriano which
never really existed. Despite his excellence in his previous 10 starts Liriano
reminded the league at a crucial time how heart-breaking he can be. Perhaps the
rest of the league had also bought into this perceived value too but purely by
the numbers in his MLB career to date Liriano has pitched 789.1 innings to an
ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP if 1.34 and despite an excellent 9.1 SO/9 was simply
promise unfulfilled for the Twins. White Sox GM Kenny Williams deserves credit
for acquiring a pitcher who has the potential to help his club down the stretch
and giving up very little in return from a farm system which, while much
maligned has produced Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, two key South-Side
difference makers this season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the build up to the trade deadline Ryan had discussions
with teams regarding Denard Span, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Glen Perkins
and Jared Burton, yet not a deal was done. The difficulty the Twins found
themselves in was that all of these players are under team control through at
least next season and all (with the exception of Morneau) are inexpensive
relative to their production. Span is having an excellent year hitting
.297/.361/.402 through Tuesday and making a little over $12 million guaranteed
over the next two seasons. Willingham is signed on for an uber bargain at 3
years and $21 million. Perkins signed a 3 year $10.5 million extension this
offseason and <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Burton</st1:place></st1:city>
is having an excellent year, making a mere $750,000 and is arbitration eligible
at the end of the current season. Despite these players excellent seasons
(again with the exception of Morneau – who has shown signs of life hitting .333
with 2 HR and 7 RBI in his last 10 games) none of them could bring in the kind
of high ceiling pitching talent the Twins are looking for simply because other
clubs are not interested in moving it. Remember that the Dodgers ultimately
baulked on Ryan Dempster because they were not willing to give up their top
pitching prospect, Allen Webster, in return. The only club to give up such a
high caliber pitching prospect before the deadline was <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Detroit</st1:city></st1:place>, who potentially over dealt, sending
Jacob Turner to the Marlins for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMEMHAtU-9iY8rhBHymk5epm-2B9I3jx8Fm_fMFvgNGsy2qV2y7AWFHlDh6eViaGWeUQhBM0UMxYAqF0sIg2lMxPky4MKpJWmFUWi-Zi624cR98p9UxuOKybNpgGjxiSOswE9UZ5qLNMaV/s1600/94be01_twins11911.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMEMHAtU-9iY8rhBHymk5epm-2B9I3jx8Fm_fMFvgNGsy2qV2y7AWFHlDh6eViaGWeUQhBM0UMxYAqF0sIg2lMxPky4MKpJWmFUWi-Zi624cR98p9UxuOKybNpgGjxiSOswE9UZ5qLNMaV/s1600/94be01_twins11911.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Terry Ryan was wise not to trade any Twins players with solid production and team friendly contracts for an uncertain return.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p>While the argument could certainly be made that Ryan might
have targeted high ceiling guys from the lower levels of the minor leagues the
Twins GM has begun to try and address the organizations need for pitching in
this years draft. Let us remind ourselves with some of the Twins early draft
choices this year and how they are progressing thus far. Number 32 pick out of
Puerto Rico Jose Berrios has been lighting it up in rookie ball with a 0.64 ERA
through 14 IP, striking out 21 in the process and holding opponents to a 0.85
average. Second round RP out of Rice JT Chargois has given up merely a hit in
7IP with <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Elizabethtown</st1:place></st1:city>
to date, striking out 6. While number 42 pick Luke Bard struggled initially
with his control for the GCL Twins, he pitched his first scoreless inning for <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Elizabethtown</st1:place></st1:city> last night
(Tuesday). Finally 2009 1<sup>st</sup> round pick Kyle Gibson pitched 3 innings
of no hit ball for the GCL Twins on Tuesday, walking 1 and striking out 7 in
the process, in his bid to return from Tommy John surgery. While these players
are clearly a long way away from major league ready my point is simply that the
Twins draft focus shifted sharply this year to focus on high caliber arms, a trend
that will likely continue with good draft position in 2013. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With the Twins out of the AL Central race the probability of
both Matt Capps and Carl Pavano being traded in August if they clear waivers
and can return to health is high. Without Capps, Pavano and Liriano next year
the Twins will have a little financial wiggle room to go out and seek free
agent pitching to aid a rotation seriously in need of some veteran leadership.
Indeed, names like Morneau and Span may well surface again in the off-season,
at which point Terry Ryan may receive an offer he can’t refuse. In the mean
time Ryan haters stand down, the Twins wily GM is building from the ground up
and the old adage will always ring true, ‘no trade is better than a bad trade’.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-67473160702707780412012-07-26T10:45:00.000-07:002012-07-27T10:11:53.443-07:00Trade Deadline Updates<link href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Cehoye%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel="File-List"></link><o:smarttagtype name="State" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype name="place" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"></o:smarttagtype><style>
<!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:SimSun;
panose-1:2 1 6 0 3 1 1 1 1 1;
mso-font-alt:宋体;
mso-font-charset:134;
mso-generic-font-family:auto;
mso-font-format:other;
mso-font-pitch:variable;
mso-font-signature:1 135135232 16 0 262144 0;}
@font-face
{font-family:"\@SimSun";
panose-1:2 1 6 0 3 1 1 1 1 1;
mso-font-charset:134;
mso-generic-font-family:auto;
mso-font-pitch:variable;
mso-font-signature:3 135135232 16 0 262145 0;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{mso-style-parent:"";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;}
@page Section1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;
mso-header-margin:.5in;
mso-footer-margin:.5in;
mso-paper-source:0;}
div.Section1
{page:Section1;}
-->
</style>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
With the July 31<sup>st</sup> trade deadline mere days away,
Twins fans have their eyes and ears glued to a swirling rumor mill to see what
might become of some of their players. The team is in disarray and inevitably
in selling mode, after moving to a season worst 18 games under .500 after
another shellacking by the White Sox on Tuesday.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Twins fans should temper their expectations however as the
organization is not in a good position to get outstanding prospects for most of
its moveable and desirable pieces. Here is the latest on the Twins rumor mill.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Twins GM Terry Ryan has been playing his cards close to his
chest as the deadline approaches, asking for high prices for all his moveable
assets in the form of high ceiling, close to major league ready power arms. The
Twins are eager to move Justin Morneau but inconsistent form, injury worries,
horrifying lefty/righty splits and the Twins unwillingness to eat any of his
$14 million salary mean he will likely stay in a Twins uniform for the time
being.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ryan has indicated that every player on the Twins roster is
available for a price, specifically referring to Josh Willingham. Willingham is
in the midst of a career year, having clubbed 25 HR, 72 RBI and produced a
.274/.385/.568 slash line through Tuesday putting him on pace for 41 HR, whilst
cutting down on SO and increasing his BB%. The price on Willingham is said to
be ‘laughable’ according to Jason Stark and why shouldn’t it be? Trading the
Hammer would be an ill conceived move unless they could return at least one blue
chip prospect. Willingham is signed to what now appears a bargain 3 year $21
million salary and has indicated a desire to finish his playing career in <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:place></st1:state>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The likelihood that Francisco Liriano gets traded remains
extremely high but his decimation by the White Sox on Monday night means teams
are still wary of his inconsistency. Look for him to be traded after his final
scheduled start before the trade deadline on Sunday, particularly if he
pitches well at home against the Indians. Despite Liriano’s value being
inhibited by a poor start it was given a boost by the Phillies signing Cole
Hamels to a 6 year, $144 million extension, leaving Liriano as the best, if
erratic, left handed starter available at the deadline. Again don’t expect much
of a return on Liriano; he is essentially a 3 month loaner, as he will become a
free agent at the end of the season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The most intriguing trade chip remains Denard Span. The Reds
are said to be high on Span, looking for a consistent leadoff hitter. Span’s
numbers are up on his last two seasons, he currently owns a .282/.345/.385 line
with 29 XBH and 9 SB. Span is signed to a team friendly deal that his him
earning $11.25 million over the next two seasons, with a club option for 2015.
The Reds are said to be considering a package surrounding young lefty power arm
Tony Cingrani who is a combined 10-3 with a 1.62 ERA and 130 SO in 111 innings
pitched between High A Bakersfield and AA Pensacola. At 22, Cingrani would seem
to indeed be a worthy prize, but due to the nature of Span’s contract it seems
the Ryan is not willing to part with him merely for Cingrani. In a market where
Juan Pierre and Shane Victorino are also available on a short term loan basis,
the Twins seem to be pricing themselves out of the trade market for Span.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ultimately it seems as if Liriano might be the only
significant piece moved at the deadline. I would personally urge the Twins to
trade Span if they can get a high caliber power lefty pitcher. With the
emergence of Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks finally fulfilling some of his promise
at AA New Britain (.274/.372/.434 with 9 HR 43 RBI and 22 SB) the Twins should
reap the rewards Span can bring. The Twins have never had difficulty producing
outstanding outfielders and with Hicks, Joe Benson (despite a very poor year)
and Oswaldo Arcia waiting in the wings should cash in if they can take
advantage of the Reds need for a leadoff hitter. If the Twins kept Span, would
they be a competing team in ’13 with the constant sludge they trot out to the
bump every day? I think not. Terry Ryan, It’s time to make some difficult, but
it the long term rewarding decisions for this ball club, go get some arms.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-62836217239021791342012-07-11T13:35:00.000-07:002012-07-11T13:35:25.764-07:00Twins Dealt Poor Hand as Trade Deadline Approaches<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
</w:Compatibility>
<w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
</w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156">
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="//img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" />
<style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style>
<![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
With the July 31<sup>st</sup> trade deadline fast approaching,
trade talk is heating up and will continue to do so in the wake of the All-Star
break in Kansas City.
Given the Twins current position as AL Central cellar dwellers and 11 games
back of the currently leading White Sox they look to be sellers in a
market with more than its fair share of trade talk and speculation as a result
of more teams in playoff contention given the additional wild card position
available in each league beginning this season. So what position are the Twins
in to make deals that will have significant impact on an organization which has
many needs but is particularly bereft of high quality major league ready
pitching?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many blogs have been expecting a large scale house cleaning
effort by the Twins in the coming weeks with the likes of Texas, Toronto,
Atlanta and Cleveland all being touted as potential trade partners for the
Twins, to name but a few. The Twins however find themselves with few quality
names to trade and will certainly not be able to acquire any blue chip
prospects, due to a variety of extenuating circumstances.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Carl Pavano was initially a name being mentioned after the
Twins awful start but with injury derailing his season, will not be dealt in
the buildup to the deadline. Another name that has been strongly linked to
trade discussion has been that of Denard Span. The consistent on base machine
has been paying well throughout this season and the Nationals have shown
interest in Span over a few consecutive seasons. The emergence of Bryce Harper
has certainly diminished this possibility as his .282/.354/.472 slash line
through 63 games outshine Span’s own line (.270/.334/.375), indeed Harper also
has more HR, SB and RBI than Span, in 15 less games played.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Justin Morneau is another Twin who has been linked with a
number of teams, most notably the Toronto Blue Jays. Morneau’s first half
numbers simply don’t do enough to entice teams to part with significant
prospects. The 2006 MVP was held to a .246 average through the first half of
the season, with 11 HR and 38 RBI and despite playing in 65 games (just 4 shy
of last years total), his history with chronic post-concussion syndrome,
middling form, inability to hit the ball to the opposite field this season and
bloated contract (in which he is due $14 million next season) make him less
likely to be dealt. Matt Capps remains a likely trade chip as the Twins have a
$6 million option on him in 2013 which they are unlikely to pick up. Despite
the fact that Capps has pitched well this season his DL stint prior to the all
star break derailed his momentum in which he had given up just 3 ER in his 8.1
innings pitched.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally there is Francisco Liriano. On Monday FOX sports Ken
Rosenthal reported that teams were ‘wary’ of trading for Liriano, despite an
ERA of 2.74 in 8 starts since his return from the bullpen including 52 strike
outs in just 49.1 innings. Rosenthal went on to report that it would be
unlikely that teams would part for significant prospects for Liriano, who many
teams see as a ‘bullpen option’. With Liriano becoming a free agent at the end
of the year, the Twins do not have much leverage or a significant history of
consistency from their mercurial ace to barter with, despite several reports
that the Braves have scouted Liriano’s last several starts.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Twins could be in a far stronger position approaching
the trade deadline but impending free agency, injury history and a lack of form
has made it probable that the return they receive on any trades made will be
moderate at best, stay tuned for further updates. </div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-26327429644521983812012-07-03T09:50:00.002-07:002012-07-03T09:50:57.823-07:00The Rise of Super Plouffe<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
</w:Compatibility>
<w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
</w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156">
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="//img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" />
<style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style>
<![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The last Twins game I attended was at Comerica Park
against the Tigers on June 16<sup>th</sup>. The game ended in an 11-7 victory
with the Tigers committing a cycle of infield errors within the first 3
innings. The beginning of the game was of especially low quality and at that
time, myself and a friend of mine who was at the game, a Tigers fan, began a
complain-a-thon about the guys on our respective teams who make their fans
suffer the most. For him, that was Ryan Raburn (some things never change), for
me it was Trevor Plouffe, who was at that time hitting .138. ‘.138,’ I kept
complaining, ‘if this guy had minor league options left there is no way he
would be playing in this game’. Later that night Plouffe shut me up by hitting
a 2 run HR and has not stopped shutting me up ever since (Raburn, incidentally,
is hitting .178, a mere 21 points higher than he was on May 16<sup>th</sup>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Plouffe’s rise over the month of June has been truly
remarkable. A first round pick by the Twins in 2004, Plouffe has always had pop
in his bat, but consistently struggled to get on base at the major league level
and struggled mightily to field any position the Twins put him in, achieving a
pedestrian .305 OBP in 2011 and managing a fielding % of just .944 at his
primary position of SS, where he started 45 games last season. Plouffe entered
June with a slash line of .176/.270/.382, which he has since raised to
.249/.326/.521. Over that same span Plouffe blasted 11 HR, batted in 21 and
gained 72 total bases. So what is the difference between super Plouffe and the
Plouffe of old?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCDxET529LBddbsTDIQalv1nCjmPVDU1vjBDM6F1BwmhF4BU-GCrPzxMCDtFO9h6j0DrP-ojh_EY1wQeh9MPL44fTRB3P4YVqKH3_mcngCwMHsS4NnxKSexd9XNjGt8Assg_TTOTM8bkhO/s1600/20120701__120702Plouffe.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCDxET529LBddbsTDIQalv1nCjmPVDU1vjBDM6F1BwmhF4BU-GCrPzxMCDtFO9h6j0DrP-ojh_EY1wQeh9MPL44fTRB3P4YVqKH3_mcngCwMHsS4NnxKSexd9XNjGt8Assg_TTOTM8bkhO/s320/20120701__120702Plouffe.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Super-Plouffe, along with Josh Willingham, has been helping Twins fans re-think the notion of Target Field as a pitcher's paradise.</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At first I thought Plouffe might be benefiting from a
favorable Ba<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bip </i>but his during the
2012 season stands at just .237 (what might his line look like if this figure
was even at .280)! In one regard, Plouffe has not changed, he still strikes out
a lot. Since his major league debut in 2010 however, Plouffe has managed to
consistently reduce his SO%. In 2010 in a very limited sample size it was
31.8%, in 2011 over 320 PA it was 22.2% and in 2012 through 230 PAs it has
fallen slightly to 21.3%, higher than the MLB average of 18.3 %. Plouffe has
significantly increased his discipline at the plate however, taking walks at a
rate of 10%, up from 7.8% last season and well above the MLB average of 8.3%.
It is Plouffe’s HR/FB ratio that has taken the most noticeable spike. 23.1% of
Plouffe’s fly balls become home runs, almost 1 in 4, that compared to a MLB
average of just 7.5 %, a remarkable increase. While Plouffe still struggles in
the field, particularly with his throwing, his power surge that has put him in
line for a 28 HR 70 RBI season, albeit with a .235 average, which will be enough to
keep the arrogant and under-performing Danny Valencia in Rochester, where he
has struggled with consistency to a mere .250 average.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So what might Plouffe’s future be with the Minnesota Twins?
Despite showing much improved form of late the Twins still figure to be sellers
at this years’ trade deadline. Denard Span, Francisco Liriano and perhaps
Justin Morneau (if he can find some consistent form) may all become targets for
contending teams, of which there are an increased number with the new wild card
format coming into play. With Plouffe out of minor league options and the Twins
bereft of right handed power besides that bat of Josh Willingham, Plouffe will
likely be on a very long leash with the Twins brass to show he can become an
everyday player for the foreseeable future. IF Plouffe can continue to lower
his strikeouts, improve his BB% and park fastballs into Target Field’s left
field seats (which he is making appear nearer and nearer home plate) the Twins
may have found an excellent power bat around whom they can begin to rebuild a
team who can challenge for a weaker than though AL Central title sooner than
later. With Plouffe under contract until 2018 and making just $485,000 this
season, you might call him the best value player in the AL right now. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-67309533571308927632012-06-09T19:26:00.001-07:002012-06-09T19:26:28.247-07:00Examining the Draft<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
</w:Compatibility>
<w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
</w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156">
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="//img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" />
<style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style>
<![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
A few days after the June 6<sup>th</sup> 1<sup>st</sup> year
player draft is a good time to reflect on what was perhaps the Twins most
critical draft ever, attempting to replenish a minor league talent pool that
shows promise at the lower levels, but lacks major league ready talent. Despite
their now seemingly yearly June surge (having won 9 of their last 11 games),
the Twins are still in a deep hole in the AL Central cellar and the next few
weeks will be critical in determining the Twins action with the forthcoming
July trade deadline. In particular, critics of the Twins farm system (including
myself) have bemoaned their lack of high caliber arms and a team ERA of 5.01,
good for 31<sup>st</sup> in the majors would seem to underline this weakness.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Twins certainly took a stab at correcting this imbalance,
selecting 24 pitchers out of their 43 draft choices. The Twins should be
commended in choosing toolsy outfielder Byron Buxton with the second overall
pick. Widely considered the top talent in the draft, the Twins had the
opportunity to pick top college pitching option Mark Appel after the Astros surprisingly
chose Puerto Rican SS Carlos Correia with the number one overall pick. The
Twins went with the best available talent and in Buxton have secured a talented
player who has drawn comparisons to Justin Upton. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Twins used their two compensatory 1<sup>st</sup> round
picks to start stacking up on arms, including their own Puerto Rican prospect –
Jose Berrios at number 32 and younger brother of Boston’s Daniel Bard Luke Bard at number 42.
Berrios is a compact right hander who throws consistently in the mid 90s and
has a plus fastball and power curve, as well as a serviceable changeup. Bard, who
served as a closer at Georgia Tech, has similar stuff, with a slightly larger
frame at 6’3. Most scouts projected Bard to be a relief option at the next
level, but the Twins are adamant about making a starter out of him.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With their next two choices the Twins drafted two power
throwing college closers, in left handed Mason Melotakis out of Northwestern St
at number 63 and intriguing 1B closer combo J.T Chargois out of Rice at number
72. Scouts suggest that both are capable of becoming setup men at the big
league level, if not closers. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It seems as if the Twins stuck o their projections on draft
day and are determined to not be pigeonholed into being labeled as a ‘pitch to
contact’ team any longer. The additions of Buxton, as well as two hard throwing
starters and a pair of hard throwing late inning relievers would be exactly
what the doctor ordered for the Twins a few years down the line at the big
league level. Due to the new pay structure from the new CBA signed this season
it seems there will never be another team with as many high picks as the Twins
had this season, with 5 of the first 72. Everything points towards them having
taken full advantage of their draft position. Only time will tell.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-5724112041405689242012-05-26T08:37:00.000-07:002012-05-26T08:37:46.046-07:00Twins June Decisions<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
</w:Compatibility>
<w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
</w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156">
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
It has been a good week for the Twins, despite a blowout
loss to the White Sox Friday night they finished up a successful 5-3 road trip
which featured improved play all over the field and some outstanding individual
performances, most notably P.J Walters complete game win in Chicago and Justin
Morneau swinging a hot stick. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Despite this good run, the Twins are running into
significant injury problems, with Carl Pavano missing his start Saturday and
Nick Blackburn on the DL. Coupled with the loss of Jason Marquis (demoted due
to ineffectiveness) times are desperate for the Twins pitching staff. The
current rotation features Scott Diamond, Walters, Anthony Swarzak, and U of M
graduate Cole De Vries, who despite possessing only limited stuff danced around
a serious shellacking at the hands of the White Sox on Friday night.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Moving forward into June the Twins roster may undergo even
more alterations as the trade deadline approaches and the Twins begin to set
their roster and minor league systems up for 2013 and beyond. Most of the
conjecture I have read has surrounded trading Denard Span, which is certainly
still a possibility for teams looking for outfield help. Span has been
consistent this year and provides a steadily high OBP at the top of any order
as well as a solid base-running threat. For the development of their big league
roster now and in the future however, the Twins would do well to try and avoid
trading Span. The Twins have Span signed through 2014 with a $9 million option
for the 2015 season and looking at that deal as a whole (5 years - $16.5
million) Span is signed to a team friendly contract which provides the Twins
with plenty of financial flexibility, especially given the large proportion of
the Twins payroll committed to Mauer and Morneau. Coupled with the fact that
Span is still only 28, he is a player the Twins should continue to build
around.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at the Twins payroll for 2013 they will be working
with approximately $ 90-100 million (so far this season, attendance is down
around 5,000 per game) accounting for the potential drop of around $10 million
from this years payroll. The Twins have two significant contract options to
consider for 2013, Scott Baker and Matt Capps. Scott Baker has a $9.25MM option
for 2013. Despite Terry Ryan’s comments after Baker’s season ending injury was
announced in which he affirmed an expectation of seeing Baker in a Twins
uniform in 2013 the club would do well to decline this option. Despite Baker’s
outstanding numbers in 2011 before he was shelved late in the season, he is far
too fragile to commit that amount of money to on a team that will likely be far
from competing next season. Capps will be an interesting decision; he has a
$6MM option for 2013 with a 250K buyout. Capps has performed well this season,
especially in save situations and with the sheer amount of major injuries to
significant closers this season (see Rivera, Madson, Soria) Capps may become
trade bait for a fringe playoff team seeking mid-season relief help.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2rsWON5uAB1OAtb48y6-Y1dg3Dg9Wo_gD_8TE7vapswK31RByiRKIipiTfBxnv8rLElpaoVH632YmoeWNGsgxpHHTb8JX1dT-iJKsB0VDN6AvKhS9t9JFExRvpj8ZLxDxkAYeTGRB119T/s1600/Source-Twins-keep-closer-Matt-Capps-BBM350T-x-large.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2rsWON5uAB1OAtb48y6-Y1dg3Dg9Wo_gD_8TE7vapswK31RByiRKIipiTfBxnv8rLElpaoVH632YmoeWNGsgxpHHTb8JX1dT-iJKsB0VDN6AvKhS9t9JFExRvpj8ZLxDxkAYeTGRB119T/s320/Source-Twins-keep-closer-Matt-Capps-BBM350T-x-large.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Will Capps remain a Twin throughout the 2012 season?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Carl Pavano will be one of the Twins significant free agents
at the end of 2012. If nothing else, Pavano has provided stability, if not
excellence for the Twins rotation over the last few seasons. Despite a low
strikeout rate and average ERA and WHIP, if Pavano can stay healthy and keep his
ERA in the low 4s through June, the Twins could seek to trade him to a team
needing pitching help at the bottom of their rotation. The X-factor in the
Twins free agent pool for 2013 is Francisco Liriano, who has shown limited
improvement since his demotion to the Twins bullpen. If Liriano can re-remerge
successfully into the Twins rotation he may also be moved before the trade
deadline. That would perhaps be the best-case scenario for the Twins as since
his excellent 2010 season Liriano has not shown he is capable of maintaining
his status as an elite major league pitcher. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Twins position in the upcoming draft will undoubtedly be
one of the keys to rebuilding an ailing franchise. In the meantime the front
office needs to start making some bold decisions to weed out the occasional bad
contract, free up some payroll, bring in prospects where possible and begin catalyzing
the transition from a struggling franchise to one that has the young arms
capable of making them a contender again in the next five years.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-2454333293085123402012-05-17T15:43:00.001-07:002012-05-17T15:43:31.367-07:00Comerica Adventures<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
</w:Compatibility>
<w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
</w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156">
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" />
<style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style>
<![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
I went to see the Twins at Comerica Park
yesterday 5/16/12. It says something about the poorness of this team that
through yesterday’s game, I had attended 5.5% of their games this season (just
2) and seen close to 20% of their victories (also 2)! Wednesday night’s game
was one of the strangest and most compelling games I have ever been to, so I
felt compelled to report.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
First off, if you haven’t been to Comerica Park,
it is a pretty great stadium, nice layout, good views all round. Never let
anyone hear you say Tigers owner Mike Illitch is not a savvy businessman. The
Tigers fans are slowly paying off Price Fielder’s fat $190 million contract,
one extra dollar on all concessions this season at a time.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Tigers defense was absolutely awful, their entire infield
committing errors in the first 3 innings of the game. Combined with some timely
hitting, this spotted the Twins to a 2-1 lead after one. In the top of the
second Brian Dozier crushed a Rick Porcello pitch into the left field seats for
a three run HR. At that point I couldn’t help myself, 35 games of 2012 season
misery briefly washed away for me in a split second; I stood up and applauded
loudly. My celebration was greeted with the kind of reaction you might expect
and it totally deserved, I was quickly back in my seat, but I couldn’t help
feeling good. The Twins (and Tigers ineptitude) had spotted Blackburn
to a 5-1 lead. Surely with the pressure off, even against a powerful lineup, he
could make this a quality start. Wrong. I mean dead wrong.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Not only did Blackburn surrender his lead, he gave it up, in
the very next half inning as Detroit
plated 5 runs on a walk, five straight singles and a sac fly. I was mortified. Blackburn has always been someone I have struggled to
like. It seemed that he always went through brief periods of competence
followed by long stretched of ineptitude. His 8.37 ERA and 1.77 WHIP this
season says it all. Blackburn’s post-game
thoughts were the final nail in his coffin for me. ‘They weren’t crushing
balls, I was still making fairly quality pitches, they were just able to do
whatever they had to do, that’s a good lineup over there’. That sounds like a
long expiring list of excuses to me. Firstly, I don’t agree with the notion of
a fairly quality pitch. Even if it boils down to good hitting, a pitch that
doesn’t result in an out isn’t a quality enough pitch. I wish Blackburn
would take some responsibility for his performance; his ‘they have a good
lineup’ line just doesn’t cut it in the big leagues. There are (in my
estimation) currently 10 good AL
hitting lineups. For want of a better expression, ‘give it a rest Blackburn’! In 5 of his last 7 starts he has given up 5
ER or more, in his last 7 starts he has gone 6 innings or more just 3 times,
currently he is simply not good enough for a major league roster. To compound
his abject performance, Jeff Gray relieved him in the 3<sup>rd</sup> and got
through 2 scoreless innings in 12 pitches, before giving up 1 ER to the heart
of the Tigers lineup and inducing 4 ground balls among his 7 outs, exactly Blackburn’s MO.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I did have a Trevor Plouffe hitting .100 watch planned for
my blog but the last two games he has made me eat my words, long may his
mini-hot streak continue. Jokes aside, is was great to see the Twins play good
fundamental baseball and get consistent excellence from their bullpen for a
good win, even against a poor performance from the Tigers.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-82627811040481189312012-05-09T15:48:00.000-07:002012-05-11T13:54:52.142-07:00Revisiting the Johan Santana Trade<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
We all remember the (much happier) Twins team built around
names such as Joe Nathan, Tori Hunter and two-time Cy Young award winner Johan
Santana. Although difficult to accept, the then small market Twins would
inevitably trade Santana in order to regain some value for him rather than
assuredly losing him to a free-agent market lining up to sign the premier
starter on the market in 2008</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Speculation was rife leading up to Santana’s trade, would
the Twins be able to secure a then top prospect pitching ace in the making such
as Jon Lester from the Red Sox or Phil Hughes from the Yankees. Knowing that
Santana would eventually hit the free agent market, neither of the AL East
powerhouse franchises bit on letting go of their then top prospects. The Twins
turned to Queens and traded Santana to the
Mets for a package that included Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and
Deolis Guerra.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What an ugly trade it turned out to be. Carlos Gomez played
out a few uneventful seasons as the Twins on again off again center fielder,
punctuated by highlight reel plays in the outfield and a memorable playoff
sealing run in game 163 of the 2009 season against the Tigers. Mulvey, a former
2<sup>nd</sup> round pick of the Mets, last pitched in the majors for the Diamondbacks
in 2010 and currently holds a 4.91 ERA at the Mets AA affiliate at Binghamton. Phil Humber, himself
a number 3 overall pick in 2004 was quickly let go of by the Twins after
consistently struggling and picked up by the Royals and eventually the White Sox. He had a descent 2011
season but despite throwing a perfect game against the Mariners in the early
going in 2012, has largely struggled his way to a 6.83 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in
27.2 IP. Wow, this is like the anti Pierzynski to San Francisco trade! But what about Guerra?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2007 Guerra was a super raw lanky 18 year old the Mets
originally signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela. Indeed, Guerra’s raw
ability was so promising Baseball Prospectus rated him the #35 prospect in MLB
prior to the 2008 season. Fast forward five year and Guerra has filled out. Now
6’5 and 245 lbs, his dominance is beginning to match his imposing
physicality. After struggling mightily in 2010 and 2011 with AAA
Rochester and AA New Britain respectively, Guerra is putting it together so far
this season. Starting the season at New
Britain, Guerra was quickly promoted after giving up
just 1 ER in 12.2 IP, having a WHIP of 0.474 and overpowering hitters to the
tune of a 10.7 SO/9. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYbgsrNEl3m-ba0iWbCRtJkaJZEbH0kQIjcxSnEZW2HSrHpAMg1ipTp_Q-m6SJeKyV6m6cZ4oQlExCDVmkrPLSGwfoXb-6qgbLm10AXJ1aAnQek-3puTL8DUWDUByClCOgYuTzZwSaaPUu/s1600/deolis-guerra-pulido.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYbgsrNEl3m-ba0iWbCRtJkaJZEbH0kQIjcxSnEZW2HSrHpAMg1ipTp_Q-m6SJeKyV6m6cZ4oQlExCDVmkrPLSGwfoXb-6qgbLm10AXJ1aAnQek-3puTL8DUWDUByClCOgYuTzZwSaaPUu/s320/deolis-guerra-pulido.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Guerra has shown no sign of slowing down in the early going
at AAA Rochester. In 9 IP, Guerra has yet to give up a run, surrendering just 6
hits, good for a WHIP of 0.778 and maintaining an excellent 10 SO/9. Guerra’s
has held opposing hitters to a paltry .119 BA at AA New Britain and a still
dominant .188 at AAA Rochester. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at some of Guerra’s advanced metrics and his stuff
yields just as impressive results. He has maintained a FIP (fielding
independent pitching) of 1.66 at AA and 1.98 at AAA Rochester. Guerra’s
velocity has receded slightly since he was a talented raw 17 year old, but his
fastball still hits in the low 90s and can reach back for mid-90s heat. Guerra
also has a plus slider and an excellent biting curve and has been working on
developing his change up. If his early performance this year is any indication,
expect to see Guerra in a Twins uniform if any member of the bullpen starts to
consistently struggle. Given the Twins rough start to the season, it’s great to
see at least one young arm that has the potential to succeed at the big league
level.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-73855906816134041342012-05-06T07:42:00.000-07:002012-05-06T07:42:17.227-07:00Dire Straits<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
</w:Compatibility>
<w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
</w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156">
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" />
<style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style>
<![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Twins in the last
week or so. Being no-hit by Jered Weaver and one-hit by King Felix and the
Mariners bullpen, while frustrating are simply two more losses in a season that
is quickly spiraling out of control for the Twins. The team currently sits at
7-19, a full four games behind the next worse team in the AL and there is no reason to believe things
will get better in the coming weeks.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Justin Morneau has hit the DL due to the reemergence of a
wrist issue that required surgery in the off-season. To compensate the Twins
will call-up Rochester
prospect Brian Dozier. There was talk of Dozier making to big-league club out
of spring training after impressing with both bat and glove. His hot start
carried over into the beginning the season at Rochester but has since slowed down and is
hitting just .250 in his last ten AAA games. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Twins also announced that they will recall Scott Diamond
in an effort to improve their consistently struggling pitching. In six starts
this season Diamond has pitched himself to a 4-1 record with a 2.60 ERA and 26
strikeouts through 34.2 innings pitched. Despite this hot start there is little
reason to believe Diamond will be able to carry this over into the big leagues
and I don’t think he will represent much of an improvement over the current
Twins starting rotation. Diamond was given some experience at the big league
level. In 39 innings pitched in 2011 Diamond was 1-5 with a 5.08 ERA and a WHIP
of 1.74. Diamond managed just 4.4 SO/9 at the big league level – hardly the
overpowering stuff the Twins rotation so sorely lacks.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With the Twins 7.5 games back after a month of the season,
May will be a critical month for the 2012 club. After Sunday’s rubber game
against the Mariners, the Twins will play 15 of their next 23 games at Target
field, against slightly less tough opposition than their brutal opening month
schedule. If the Twins continue to struggle expect the house cleaning to begin.
By the all-start break the Twins roster could look significantly different with
certain players becoming trade bait for teams in need. Denard Span is a name
who has been mentioned and after his strong start may well find himself in a
different uniform by the trade deadline. The Twins have to be careful if they
pursue this route as Span is signed to a team friendly 4 year deal, the Twins need
to acquire good value in areas of need for the organization, something that was
sorely lacking in trades carried out in the Bill Smith era. Between potential
forthcoming trades and excellent draft position this year, the Twins have a
great opportunity to begin strengthening a mediocre farm system and build for
the future.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-14888433424593566282012-04-23T09:25:00.000-07:002012-04-23T13:30:54.779-07:00Twins Brave Faces not Fooling Anyone<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Since the beginning of a young 2012 season the rhetoric from
the Twins Clubhouse has been the same: ‘This is not the same club that lost 99
games in 2011’. This is a thought that has been echoed constantly by both Ron Gardenhire
and Terry Ryan as well as by several veteran players, so often in fact, that it
has me wondering if the Twins organization truly believes this.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Twins are currently sitting at 5-11, fourth in the AL
Central, ahead only of the surprisingly bad Kansas City Royals. In some ways
the message of the Twins leadership couldn’t be truer. After a hapless opening
series sweep in Baltimore
the Twins have started to play better baseball and have picked up offensively.
The Twins are currently 9<sup>th</sup> on the Major Leagues in team batting
average at .257, 14<sup>th</sup> in OBP at .317 and 6<sup>th</sup> in hits with
140 through the first sixteen games of the season. Despite this the Twins are
only 21<sup>st</sup> in runs scored, 18<sup>th</sup> in home runs and 19<sup>th</sup>
in RBI. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It was inevitable that the Twins would break out of their
opening funk as they have some powerful bats in their lineup. Josh Willingham
has proven more than an adequate replacement for Michael Cuddyer taking a
.328/.425/.655 with 5 HR and 12 RBI into the last days of April and is doing
exactly hat he was brought in to do. Despite this improved offensive effort,
the Twins might find themselves losing over 90 games again this season, for
one reason only, their starting rotation.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Twins are indeed a different team from last year; they
have not nearly had the number of injury concerns in the early going. Joe Mauer
and Justin Morneau have been healthy and performing well and aside from Nick
Blackburn missing a start primarily as a precautionary measure with forearm
soreness the only real injury blow the Twins have been dealt was that of Scott
Baker; and what a blow it was.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I have said this before and I will say it again. The Twins
rotation is simply not good enough to compete at a big league level. Let’s take
a look at how they have fared in the early going. Through 16 starts, the Twins
rotation (including Swarzak) has an ERA of 6.39, a combined WHIP of 1.60 and
opposing hitters are hitting a combined .305 against Twins starters. Granted
there are some things to consider. Jason Marquis has only made one start,
Francisco Liriano has looked truly horrible and the rotation has been a little
uneven without Blackburn over the last week or
so. There are certainly positives too. Liam Hendriks has looked excellent in
his first two starts and looks as though he could mature into a solid middle of
the rotation starter. Carl Pavano has pitched solidly in his last two starts
but been undone by one bad pitch on each occasion. What the Twins have on their
books currently is 4 guys who are realistically back end number 4 or 5 starters
and Francisco Liriano; who looks in line for a demotion to AAA unless he gets
back on track quickly.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnb_uYVfLppOXGrqXsFfo64tq-Q87DxBwIjAcVeHBF2DXpg_37bT6y3lD9d_KUVaetL_7g3S-6FTlRwNrGQcqn3TNBszSKNpyQEniuiOnp8cRiRpqVkE-cWuKW1R8-c1wdZbfcM2oTIV-U/s1600/xLiriano.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnb_uYVfLppOXGrqXsFfo64tq-Q87DxBwIjAcVeHBF2DXpg_37bT6y3lD9d_KUVaetL_7g3S-6FTlRwNrGQcqn3TNBszSKNpyQEniuiOnp8cRiRpqVkE-cWuKW1R8-c1wdZbfcM2oTIV-U/s320/xLiriano.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Bullpen bound? Or even Rochester Bound?</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I take a great deal of frustration reading blogs and
articles as well as the messaging from the Twins Clubhouse that paints an
unrealistic picture of the Twins rotation. Yes the Twins have always had a
focus on ‘pitching to contact’, of letting their sound fundamental defense do
the work, but this philosophy is now so ingrained in the minds of Twins fans
that we have come to expect pitching mediocrity from our starters. I can’t
remember the last Twins game I watched where I saw a starting pitcher go 8 IP+
and give up 2 or less runs (I believe it as the last game of the 2011 season,
when Pavano tossed a 5 hit shut out against the Royals). My point is simply
this. The Twins pitching philosophy has weakened our rotation and bullpen to
the point that it is not capable of mounting a challenge in a competitive AL
Central division. The Twins minor league system, while housing some solid
prospects, has very few MLB worthy arms (the exception would be Kyle Gibson,
but his status is uncertain while returning from Tommy John surgery). The Twins
are ideally placed in this years draft to begin reversing this trend. If this
franchise is to consistently get back to winning ways, we need to start by
getting a bunch of young, high ceiling, winning arms. Any thoughts?</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-14044106173683573652012-04-12T13:01:00.000-07:002012-04-12T13:01:03.910-07:00The Baker Dilemma<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">The Twins, already facing stiff competition in challenging for the AL Central this year, suffered a huge blow when it was announced that their best pitcher from 2011, Scott Baker, would miss the entire 2012 season due to impending elbow surgery.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">At the end of this season Terry Ryan will have some interesting roster decisions to make, particularly regarding the starting pitching in 2013. At the press conference in which the Twins announced Baker’s surgery Ryan spoke of ‘hoping to have him ready for 2013’, in a nonchalant manner. Hold on, not so fast, the Twins have an option on Baker for 2013, for $9 million. I’m not sure if that is a price tag that I would be willing to pay for someone as brittle as Scott Baker. Would you have paid $9 million for Francisco Liriano’s 2008 comeback season? (in which he pitched 76 innings with a WHIP of 1.39), I would not. Baker, admittedly, is facing entirely different circumstances, he will not be undergoing Tommy John surgery, however his surgery does require 6 months of rehab.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHxvNMxZv47EsrOWcPRM_2c2rI4aXy5SDkhnDWNCueSQgkYL6AmOXGSWGPaXmJlwj91DHQisMEr2jz4cBbmWcav-8EhTy-dtD_1H-fpz5jcoodVz5BlhcxmyUP6MfOtaDS1Tsd0mnQ-LG4/s1600/20080924_scott_baker_33.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHxvNMxZv47EsrOWcPRM_2c2rI4aXy5SDkhnDWNCueSQgkYL6AmOXGSWGPaXmJlwj91DHQisMEr2jz4cBbmWcav-8EhTy-dtD_1H-fpz5jcoodVz5BlhcxmyUP6MfOtaDS1Tsd0mnQ-LG4/s320/20080924_scott_baker_33.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Losing Baker is a big blow to the Twins 2012 hopes</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal">Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis will be free agents at the end of the season and with Pavano turning 37 next January and unlikely to replicate the outstanding numbers he put up in his 2010 campaign; it seems unlikely the Twins will resign him. Jason Marquis was signed to a 1 year contract with the Twins, who were looking for a veteran presence to put up some innings in an inexperienced pitching staff, may also be looking elsewhere for work in 2013. Finally the mercurial Francisco Liriano is a free agent at the end of the 2012 season and may not make it that far if the Twins fall out of contention early and decide to use him as trade bait.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Baker’s injury will undoubtedly present Liam Hendriks and Anthony Swarzak with increased opportunities to start. Hendriks had an outstanding spring which followed a moderately successful September call-up for the 2011 club. Indeed he deserves his opportunity, despite being fast-tracked through the Twins minor league system and not having much experience even at the AAA level. Swarzak has had success for the Twins both as a spot starter and a reliever, so it will be interesting to see in what capacity the Twins use him, much will depend on Hendriks early success. The potential departures at the end of the season also potentially open the door for consensus top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson, who is slated for a return to the mound from Tommy John surgery in August to put himself back on the fast track to the big league club in 2013.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Whether the front office wants to admit it or not the Twins are in a prime spot to restock their mediocre minor league system this year and perhaps next. The Twins hold 6 of the first 100 draft selection in 2012, including the 2<sup>nd</sup>, 32<sup>nd</sup>, 42<sup>nd</sup> and 63<sup>rd</sup> and while this years draft class doesn’t have a Strasburg or Harper type cornerstone superstar, it is thought to be a deep class. Should the Twins live up to most expert forecasts they may well have excellent draft position again in 2013, giving them an ideal opportunity to address areas of need within the organization (particularly starting pitching).</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">While Baker’s injury is a devastating blow to the Twins, it might just give them the push they need to fully commit to building for the future.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-30489258143438625222012-04-10T11:30:00.000-07:002012-04-10T11:30:07.389-07:00Down on the Farm 04.10.12<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">Here’s a look at how the Twins various minor league affiliates are faring in their opening weeks of the season. Let me know what prospects you are interested in following and I will add them to the weekly update.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Low A – Beloit Snappers</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Two of the Twins top prospects are beginning their seasons at Beloit. Consensus top prospect 3B Miguel Sano has a made a splash with his power bat already blasting 3 HR and 9 RBI in just 9 AB and slugging his way to a 1.335 OBP. Fellow 2B prospect and reigning Appalachian League MVP Eddie Rosario is also off to a hot start hitting .385/.589/.692 with 4 stolen bases in just 13 at bats.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Steven Gruver was the most impressive of the Snappers starting pitchers, tossing 6 innings of shut out ball while striking out 5. Eden Prairie native Madison Boer has struggled early, giving up 5 runs (3 earned) in 4 innings pitched in his first start at low A.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>High A – Fort Myers Miracle</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">The Twins No.1 draft choice from a year ago Levi Michael has made a nice start with the Miracle, hitting .308 through the opening week of the season, but showing excellent plate discipline, taking four walks in his first 13 at bats, contributing to an excellent .471 OBP. Left handed slugger Oswaldo Arcia has made a slow start, going just 2 for his first 12, but also showing patience at the plate, walking 5 times already for the Miracle.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Pat Dean, who excelled at Beloit before struggling in a late season call up to Fort Myers, pitched well in his first start, surrendering 2 ER through 6 IP in his first start. Adrian Salcedo also fared well, giving up just 1 ER through 4 IP, striking out 3, although he did issue 3 free passes.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>AA – New Britain Rock Cats</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">After going 1 for his first 12, Aaron Hicks had an excellent game for the Rock Cats Monday, going 2-4 with a 3R HR and an RBI single. Evan Bigley and Pedro Florimon have also been raking early.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Jason Marquis had a solid rehab start at New Britain, giving up just 1 ER in 6 innings pitched. He is scheduled to pitch one more rehab start this Thursday before being recalled to the big league club. Deolis Guerra and Alex Wimmers, giving up 2 ER combined over 8+ innings in their respective opening starts.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>AAA – Rochester Red Wings</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Brian Dozier has been the story early for Rochester this season and is already knocking on the door of the big league club, going 9 for his first 19, including 3 doubles and a HR. Scott Diamond had an excellent first start for the Red Wings, going 6.1 innings of shut out baseball. Carlos Gutierrez has also had a solid start, striking out 5 in just 3.1 innings of work.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-85127461105003814472012-04-10T10:51:00.000-07:002012-04-10T10:51:37.959-07:00Home Openening Reflections<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">The Twins continued their offensive struggles yesterday in a disappointing home opener against this summers’ big spending Angels. After struggling to make his sinker, well, sink in the first inning, giving up two early runs, Nick Blackburn settled down in a big way, at one point retiring fourteen straight and inducing twelve ground ball outs in six innings of work. Once again the Twins defense let their pitching down, committing two errors behind Blackburn and despite the fact that these did not lead to runs, it was another defensive miscue that allowed the Angels to open up their lead in the 7<sup>th</sup> inning.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">With the now pedestrian Bobby Abreu on 1<sup>st</sup>, Alberto Callaspo hit ground ball up the middle which SS Jamey Carroll over-dived for and what should have been a routine double play was deflected allowing both runners to advance. Blackburn was made to pay as he left a meat-ball over the plate for Chris Iannetta to drive to the left center field wall for a two run double. This passage of play again was indicative of the carry over the Twins have seemed to experience from last season, poor fundamental defense and no hitting.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Josh Willingham was perhaps the only Twin ho looked like a real threat at the plate, hitting the ball hard all four times against C.J Wilson including a solo home run in the 4<sup>th</sup> and narrowly pulling another potential long ball foul his next at bat. Wilson himself induced 14 ground balls, another indication of how much Twins hitters have struggled so far to drive the ball, yesterday’s struggles putting the Twins at six runs through their first four games.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Interestingly Ron Gardenhire went with his 4<sup>th</sup> different line-up in as many games and while it was understandable getting as many right handed hitters in the line-up against a dominant southpaw like C.J Wilson, to me this speaks to the fact that outside of his core players, Ron Gardenhire really isn’t sure of what his best lineup maybe. So far the most noticeable and yet least talked about offensive struggle had been getting the Twins speedy table setters on base, Span, Casilla and Jamey Carroll combining for an OBP of just .146 through four games. The next two starters the Twins face are Jared Weaver and Dan Haren and with Scott Baker’s return anything but immediate, the Twins face a real test of character over the next few days.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-78527190876930591032012-04-09T09:59:00.000-07:002012-04-09T09:59:16.337-07:00Slow Out of the Gate<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">Well after all the excitement, conjecture and apprehension the Minnesota Twins 2012 season is finally underway; and in the blink of an eye, the Twins are 0-3. 0-3, oh no, time to panic! Not so fast. Despite the Twins lackluster efforts in their opening series against the Orioles (more on this in a minute) let us not jump on the complaining and whining bandwagon. The Red Sox are 0-3; the Yankees are also 0-3. The last time the Yankees were 0-3 was 1998, guess who won the World Series that year? This is not to say that the Twins are currently of the same caliber as those teams, nor is it to say that opening weekend wasn’t incredibly frustrating, but it is just three games.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Perhaps the most irritating aspect of the last three days is that the Orioles never really looked in danger in any three of those games. Unfortunately the Twins came out of the gate the way they crossed the finish line in 2011, with so-so pitching, and incredibly poor hitting.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">True to 2011 form the Twins are already struggling with some injuries, with Scott Baker being on the DL with shoulder tendinitis (nothing new here) and spring stud Liam Hendriks missing his well earned first start of 2012 with a nasty bout of food poisoning. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Let’s look at the pitching performances from the Baltimore series. Carl Pavano settled down after a rough opening in which he shoed uncharacteristic lack of control and falling behind in several counts. Pavano finished having given up 4 ER over 7 IP. Let’s get one thing straight Twins fans; this is pretty much a standard Pavano performance. Despite the status afforded him by being the opening day starter, this effort is only 1 ER away from being a quality start. Other than Josh Willingham’s two run blast, the Twins gave him nothing in return, going 0-4 with RISP.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Liriano’s start on Saturday was more puzzling to me. I watched this game and I could not get one overriding feeling out of my head while I was, Liriano looked pretty good. Don’t get me wrong, you are only as good as your pitching line and Liriano gave up 5 ER in only 4 IP, but there is a little more to read between the lines here. Liriano struck out the side on the first and looked dominant in doing so. The solo HR that Adam Jones hit in the second inning was a sharp pitch, down in the zone and nothing more than a great piece of hitting. Liriano’s defense gave him little help, committing two errors behind him and Baltimore’s Ba<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bip </i>in this game was .538 – which is simply unreasonable. In short, Baltimore found every hold they could find, the Twins defense as poor and Liriano made a few mistakes. I’m looking for a big improvement in his second start. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Finally, props to Anthony Swarzak, no matter what he is asked to do by the Twins, he does it well. 5 IP, 1 ER, Swarzak certainly gave the Twins a chance to be competitive in this game, sadly the pitiful two hits that they mustered off Jason Hammel did not. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1EohmOUuQbC9PhIMrhAcqdlpW58K9Y0zQJm_PB1hp6Nnn1Hm9FBnKLyCZby6rY2E3DkMXVLgkxknbN-RVMWszKu8qfA06N6yakzT7wlTh7y-BUsBul3RAwC2_GjJE8qIpBWuCiguLy5Xc/s1600/JustinMorneau1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1EohmOUuQbC9PhIMrhAcqdlpW58K9Y0zQJm_PB1hp6Nnn1Hm9FBnKLyCZby6rY2E3DkMXVLgkxknbN-RVMWszKu8qfA06N6yakzT7wlTh7y-BUsBul3RAwC2_GjJE8qIpBWuCiguLy5Xc/s320/JustinMorneau1.jpg" width="256" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Justin Morneau has driven the ball well early on</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal">Hitting has been the struggle out of the gate for the Twins, they have managed just 5 runs on 15 hits through 3 games, the only highlight, which cannot be understated is Justin Morneau being 4-10 with 2 doubles through this trying opening series. It is the Twins hitting that really needs to wake up as they head back to Minnesota for the home opener against C.J Wilson and the Angels on Wednesday. With the next 16 games coming against the Angels, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox and Rays the Twins will need to find form across the board in order to not find them selves in a big hole by the end of April. </div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-7958959360507669892012-04-01T08:42:00.000-07:002012-04-01T08:42:06.254-07:00Roster Taking Shape<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">With only a few days left of spring the Twins only have a few final roster decisions to make before heading to Maryland to face Baltimore in their opening series beginning April 6<sup>th</sup>. The Twins announced via Twitter on Friday that Drew Butera was being optioned to AAA Rochester opening the door for former Astros prospect J.R Towles to travel with the team as their third catcher. Aside from the celebratory fist pumps at reading this news and all jokes aside, this does leave the Twins brass with some interesting decision still to make and potentially a more fluid roster than expected.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">It would seem that there are two positional roster spots up for grabs and the Twins are choosing between Chris Parmelee, Sean, Burroughs, Brian Dozier and Brian Dinkleman for those final two spots. My contention would be that Dinkleman is out and Ron Gardenhire as much as admitted Parmelee made this roster in comments to the press on Saturday. Parmelee certainly deserves his shot following up his excellent September call up with a .288 spring average, while launching 4 HR, collecting 11 RBI and getting on base at a tidy .382. Parmelee will likely serve as relief for Morneau at 1B but also creates an interesting dynamic in the outfield. It seems the Ben Revere’s spot in right field is no sure thing and Parmelee will be amassing some ABs there, with Denard Span and Josh Willingham filling out the rest of the outfield.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">The battle between Dozier and Burroughs for the last roster spot is a fascinating one. Ron Gardenhire suggested in comments lat week that if Dozier was to make the lineup is would be as the clubs’ starting SS, whereas Burroughs would likely fill more of a platoon and utility roll, given his infield versatility. Both have had solid spring, with Burroughs currently possessing a .444 spring OBP. Dozier, while a little less consistent at the plate, has also been solid, sporting a .277 average to go along with 3 spring HR and 9 RBI. Personally I would like to see Dozier start the year at AAA and build on his momentum from last year, where he had an outstanding minor league season. Burroughs offers versatility, a little more experience and a solid pinch hitting option off the bench for Ron Gardenhire. If nothing else Twins fans should be excited about their team’s prospects in the infield, where names such as Parmelee, Dozier, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Levi Michael suggest that the Twins may be two or three years away from turning around an area of their team that has always been a significant weakness, into a dependable strength.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-32880196950919261942012-03-26T15:39:00.000-07:002012-03-26T15:39:52.539-07:00Spring Training Highs - Hitting<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">After some consideration I decided to put the kibosh on finishing the central showdown piece. It is getting dangerously close to opening day and there is so much to discuss, lesson learned for next season.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt;">Camp has gone well for the Twins with no significant injury concerns or crises (so far). Despite the fact that spring form isn’t something to be bought into (who remembers Chris Shelton of the Tigers a few seasons ago), as baseball fans waiting for the opening day of a team that lost 99 games n 2011, what else do we have? Here are some of the Twins highs and lows so far this spring.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt;">After some initial injury concerns Luke Hughes has made a strong bid to make the big league club, raking all spring to the tune of .385/.429/.795 with 4 HR and 13 RBI through 39 spring ABs. It would be very surprising at this point if Hughes did not leave Fort Myers with the big league club.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt;">Alexi Casilla and Ben Revere have had solid springs so far, Casilla contributing a line of .355/.429/.387 with 3 stolen bases while Revere has managed .325/.357/.375 and showed an improved arm in the outfield, an issue he has worked hard to address this offseason. Gardenhire recently admitted that Willingham will start opening day in LF, while Span will be the team’s center fielder. That leaves a three horse race between Revere, Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee for the RF spot. Revere’s solid play in his rookie season combined with his hot spring should be enough to win him the starting job.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt;">Finally, how could we get through the post without the big three? Monumentally, Span, Mauer and Morneau have managed to get through spring unscathed. No Twins could honestly say their heart strings didn’t flutter a little when Morneau broke his miserable spring slump to crush 2 HR on March 24<sup>th</sup> against Tampa Bay. While Morneau was quick to downplay this performance and wisely so, he has improved and gone 4 for his last 9 at the plate and most importantly of all, is reporting no symptoms of his career threatening post-concussion syndrome.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt;">Mauer has quietly put together a good spring, going .333/.381/.385, while playing time at 1B and C and reporting having never felt stronger at this stage of spring. Span has also played well despite an early scare in which he crashed into the center field wall, hitting .300/.378/.350. Ron Gardenhire deserves credit for managing all three meticulously this spring, typically using them on alternate days and avoiding taking them on several of the Twins longer road trips. While spring shouldn’t be read into, this is no ordinary year for the Twins and the one thing I find myself struggling not to read into is this; Minnesota should go into opening day with a healthy Span, Mauer and Morneau – what a relief.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-35527170664977651902012-03-18T15:15:00.000-07:002012-03-18T15:15:42.978-07:00Central Showdown - Third Base<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Miguel Cabrera – Tigers</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Third base in the central was irrevocably changed by the Tigers signing Prince Fielder to a nine year, $209 million deal. Miguel Cabrera, though some years and about 50 lbs ago has plenty of experience playing 3<sup>rd</sup> base with the Marlins and was the logical choice for the Tigers to move back there, instantly making him the class of the division.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Simply put, Cabrera is a machine. In 2011 he posted career highs in average .344 and OBP .448 and has averaged 33 HR and 118 RBI in a nine season span. Cabrera’s other power metrics are equally frightening, he has a career ISO of .239, with a career HR/FB % of nearly double the league average and has a SO/BB ration of just 1.57. Despite having a poor glove throughout his career and having some extra weight to carry around at the hot corner – Cabrera is one of the top 3 players in the game. Oh and one more thing, since his first full season in 2004 he has averaged just shy of 157 games played per season! Who is Detroit’s only player that can better that you ask? Price Fielder at just shy of 160, wow!</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Mike Moustakas – Royals</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">The drop off after Cabrera is dramatic but in Moustakas the Royals may have something special. Moose’s big league debut was consistently overshadowed by an underwhelming initial call-up to the big league roster and Eric Hosmer’s consistent excellence. In September however, Moustakas gave everyone a taste of his capabilities with a .352 average to go along with four second half home runs and 26 RBI. Overall Moose put up a 2011 line of .263/.309/.367 along with some solid contact and plate discipline metrics. Moustakas was a higher rated prospect than Hosmer moving through the Royals system (which including an unbelievable season at 2 minor league levels in which he hit .322 with 36 HR and 124 RBI). Moose has star power but at the tender age of 23, it is unclear whether he is ready to translate that talent into major league numbers as early as 2012.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Danny Valencia – Twins</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">After impressing as a middle-season call-up in 2010 to the tune of .311/.351/.448 line in 85 games, Valencia game down to earth in his sophomore campaign after his BA<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bip </i>fell 70 points between the 2 seasons. Valencia did show some pop in his second season, launching 15 HR and driving in 72 runs. Valencia also showed signs of improvement in his plate discipline; despite striking out more in 2011, he increased his walk rate and pitches per plate appearance but continuing to improve upon these marks will be crucial if Valencia is to overturn a mediocre 2011. Ron Gardenhire publicly criticized Valencia throughout the season for defensive lapses in concentration and lamented Valencia for trying to do too much with the ball instead of relying on his natural strength and pull power stroke. Valencia is off to a hot start this spring, so it will be interesting to see if he can bounce back in 2012.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Lonnie Chisenhall – Indians</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Chisenhall was a mid-year promotion by the Indians who contributed solidly to their push for the AL Central before the Tigers ran away with it late in the year. The Indians hope Chisenhall can develop into a solid offensive and defensive contributor who can man their hot corner for the next 10 years. In 66 games he was good for a .255/.284/.415 line with 7 HR and 22 RBI while providing a solid glove at third. Chisenhall’s main Achilles heal in his debut was a putrid 3.6% BB/9 (MLB average 8.1%). This combined with an above average SO% led to Chisenhall’s miserable OBP. If he can improve his plate discipline (and his .344 OBP in four minor league seasons suggests he can) the Indians third base job will be his to lose for the foreseeable future.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Brent Morel – White Sox</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Morel was taken by the White Sox in the 3<sup>rd</sup> round of the 2008 amateur draft and before the 2011 season Baseball America rated him as the #85 prospect in all of baseball. In his first two seasons however, he has failed to live up to his billing as a top prospect. Despite showing growth from his 2010 debut Morel managed a batting slash line of just .245/.287/.366 in 2011. Morel’s OBP was still atrocious last season despite improving his LD% and cutting his SO% in half. In two big league seasons Morel has had a BA<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bip </i>of .262 so he may be in for a significant rise in OBP and batting average if he can find a few more holes this season. Still for my money, Morel is the weakest in a pretty weak field at 3B in the AL Central.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-34872259603600960572012-03-13T15:15:00.000-07:002012-03-13T15:15:36.093-07:00Central Showdown - Shortstop<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Asdrubal Cabrera – Indians</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Cabrera had always been a solid shortstop going into the 2011 season. Through his 4 previous big league seasons, he had only once posted an average below .275 and an OBP below .340. Cabrera’s sudden power stroke was inexplicable given that in four previous MLB seasons he had managed just 18 home runs. Out of nowhere in 2011 he blasted 25 to go along with a .273/.332/.460 slash line, with 92 RBI and 17 SB to boot, making him an explosive 5 category contributor and arguably, one of the top five offensive shortstops in the game: All this with his lowest BA<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bip </i>since entering the big leagues in 2007. Through his major league career, Cabrera has never walked a significant amount and strikes out right on par with the rest of the league at 17.8%, so how did he do it? The % of Cabrera’s fly balls that became home runs jumped from a miserly 2.2% in 2010 to 10.5% in 2011, well above the league average of 7.5%. Even with some regression Cabrera is still the class of the division.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Alexei Ramirez – White Sox</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Cuban defector Ramirez has been a remarkable model of consistency since joining the White Sox in 2008. ‘A little bit of everything not a lot of any one thing’ would be an accurate description of Ramirez four big league seasons thus far. In that span he has delivered a 162 game average of .279/.323/.421 with 19 HR 77 RBI and 13 SB. All this while providing an outstanding glove at SS in 2010 and 2011 makes Ramirez one of the better American league shortstops out there. While Ramirez has been a little more strike out prone in the last 2 seasons, his SO% is still well below the league average. Ramirez is a lock to put up his excellently consistent numbers again in 2012. In the AL Central, he is as close to a sure thing as you can get. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2P4lgP6qJ1V8RFXBQR1JCa1kOJE94-zWsLKcxh1-t4cWTrqE-RQQ_EYmr6nj15vYZkBdl4neVnPbz0fGutEaz7aCpv9vgzsRwcjEatUyseXa3mlY5tw9k9ZwafJV6g0bRbwRqeNDC0KLi/s1600/Asdrubal-Cabrera.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2P4lgP6qJ1V8RFXBQR1JCa1kOJE94-zWsLKcxh1-t4cWTrqE-RQQ_EYmr6nj15vYZkBdl4neVnPbz0fGutEaz7aCpv9vgzsRwcjEatUyseXa3mlY5tw9k9ZwafJV6g0bRbwRqeNDC0KLi/s320/Asdrubal-Cabrera.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cabrera is the class of the division at shortstop</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Jhonny Peralta – Tigers</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">At the still friendly age of 29, it’s hard to believe Peralta is entering his 10<sup>th</sup> full big league season. Peralta has always had good pop in his bat, averaging 19 HR and 83 RBI as a 162 game average over his big league career. What really elevated Peralta in 2011 was his career best .299/.345/.478 slash line which earned him his first all-star nod. Peralta did benefit from a 62 point rise in BA<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bip </i>between 2010 and 2011 so we should perhaps expect some level of regression from his outstanding average last year. Similarly to Ramirez, Peralta has in recent seasons exhibited an excellent glove, with an average R<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">field </i>of 7.3 over the last 3 seasons. To show he is on the level of Ramirez, Peralta must repeat his 2011 numbers (particularly his elevated OBP) in the middle of a fearsome Tigers lineup that gives him every chance of doing so.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Jamey Carroll – Twins</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Put together a decent batting average of .278, a below average SO% - 13.9 %, an above average BB% - 10% and a solid LD% - 22 %, what do you have? A none too shabby OBP of .356 and a solid major league career. These are all statistics that belong to Carroll who has turned a below average (in major league terms) skill set into an above average major league career which has spanned 10 years, 5 teams and both leagues. Such is the confidence the Twins brass has in Carroll as a table setter that they signed him to a 2 year pact worth $6.5 million. Carroll could not have joined the teams at a better time; they sported one of the worst defenses in the league. While Carroll certainly has range that is diminishing with age, he still has a solid glove at three infield positions and should sure up an inexperienced infield which sprang consistent leaks throughout the 2011 season. Offensively Carroll may look unspectacular but if he can do what he has successfully throughout his career Carroll will meet the Twins needs and should score plenty of runs with a guaranteed everyday role.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Alcides Escobar – Royals</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Now having had 2 full MLB seasons under his belt 2011 saw Escobar’s skill set grow very little. Given the green light by the Royals to show off his wheels he swiped 26 bags but was caught on 9 occasions in the process. While Escobar raised his batting average by almost 20 points, his OBP remained the same largely thanks to a truly miserable BB % of 4.2 % and a not so coincidental 20 point spike in BA<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bip. </i>Escobar also saw a 7% fall in LD % in 2011 and despite a significant improvement with the glove in 2011 has failed to impress in his short major league career – so far!</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-10282196007995829132012-03-07T15:47:00.000-08:002012-03-07T15:47:02.670-08:00Central Showdown - Second Base<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">Second base is a position in which the AL Central is sorely lacking. There is an evident absence of both quality and depth and this season will see the chance for several prospects across different organizations to emerge and secure big league starting jobs.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jason Kipnis – Indians</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Despite seeing just 126 Major League ABs in 2011, Kipnis is perhaps the class of the division. Kipnis had a solid start after being promoted to the Indians increasingly powerful infield, hitting .272/.333/.507 with 7 HR, 19 RBI and swiping 5 bags in the process. Kipnis also excelled in other metrics with an ISO of .235 but did benefit from a large slice of lady luck in his major league debut, as throughout his 3 minor league seasons he only belted only 19 HR. His HR/FB (home run to fly ball %) was one of the highest in baseball (16<sup>th</sup> best in players with at least 150 PAs. All of these assessments will need to be put on hold with Kipnis as he has provided us much too small a sample of MLB ABs to draw solid conclusions from. In his limited big league career he has proven to be a below average 2B with an R<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">field </i>of -2. Kipnis will need to improve his plate discipline if he is to continue to replicate his excellent .378 OBP over his 3 minor league seasons with the Indians organization.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Gordon Beckham – White Sox</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">It’s hard to believe that Beckham is just 25. He seems to have been around and was bandied about as the next big 2B prospect for a few seasons. Beckham has not lived up to the hype in his big league career so far but age is still on his side. Beckham had an excellent rookie season in 2009 in which he hit .270/.347/.460 with 14 HR. His initial success seems to have come from a propensity to walk and not strike out, with a 9.5% BB% and a SO% of 15.1 – rates which he has not been able to replicate since (posting figures of 6.3% for BB and 19.1% for SO in 2011). Beckham significantly improved his defense last season with an R<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">field </i>of 5 last year after averaging -10.5 in his previous 2 seasons, as well as increasing his fielding % by almost 40 points and showing a significant increase in range. Beckham still has the potential and the time to take his game to the next level but the previous 2 seasons since his promising rookie campaign would suggest he may not fulfill his over-inflated promise.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Johnny Giavotella – Royals</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Giavotella debuted for the Royals in the stretch run of 2011 after being one of their 2<sup>nd</sup> round draft choices out of the University of New Orleans in 2008. Giavotella had a below average major league debut, producing a .247/.273/.376 line in 46 games last year. Giavotella was poor in the field but had some speed on the base paths, stealing 5 bases in his brief major league introduction. Although a small sample size, Giavotella’s initial struggles derive from an Alfonso Soriano-esque 3.2% BB% (the league average is 8.1%)! Despite these struggles, Giavotella does have an excellent minor league track record, putting up a .305/.375/.437 line through just under 450 minor league games. These numbers would suggest that Giavotella will improve his plate discipline somewhat this season, and with a depth chart in which his closest challenger is Chris Getz, Giavotella should be given a long leash by the Royals at 2B this season. Look for him to give them a solid on-base slap-hitting presence.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Ryan Raburn/Ramon Santiago – Tigers</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Raburn had a poor season in 2011 with his average plummeting almost 30 points and his OBP falling almost 50 points after solid contributory seasons at 2B and in the Tigers OF in 2009 and 2010. Raburn has benefited from a career .321 BA<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bip</i>, which may eventually right itself and cause a further decline in his slash line. Raburn’s biggest battle is with plate discipline, striking out a whopping 27.3% of his ABs in 2011 (league average 17.5%) and only walking 5% of his ABs (league average of 8.5%). Raburn is a solid power contributor but with a SO/BB ratio of 5.43 (yes, you read correctly), he will only ever be a platoon option plugging holes for a Tigers lineup that is loaded with power bats. In Santiago the Tigers have a solid and versatile middle infielder who is a valuable alternative to Raburn because of his superior glove (career R<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">field </i>of 12), and the fact that he plays on a team spoiled for big bats.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Alexi Casilla – Twins</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">The Twins have been nothing if not patient with Casilla after acquiring him from the Angels in 2005. Casilla has put his talent together in fits and spurts, including his best season in 2008 in which his .281/.333/.374 line is more in keeping with what the Twins want from their 2B. Casilla has steadily decreased his SO% and increased his BB% in his 6 years with the Twins, improvements he needs to capitalize on in order to build upon his increasing ability on the base paths, swiping a career high 15 bags in 2011. Casilla also drastically improved his performance in the field last season, having a turnaround in R<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">field </i>from -5 in 2010 to 4 in 2011. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">IF,</b> and it’s a big if, Casilla can put these improvements together over an injury free season his dominant winter in the Dominican leagues is evidence that he may have his best season with the Twins to date.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-43615299479903381092012-03-01T19:02:00.001-08:002012-03-01T19:08:49.186-08:00Central Showdown - First Base<div class="MsoNormal">First base is another position in which the AL Central has an embarrassment of riches, not least with the Tigers addition of Prince Fielder to a 9 year $180 million deal this off-season. Question marks surround Paul Konerko’s continuing production as he reaches senior citizen status, super-stud Eric Hosmer’s first full season in the Bigs and Twins cornerstone Justin Morneau’s return from two injury ridden seasons.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>1. Prince Fielder – Tigers</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">The Tigers certainly made the biggest splash in the AL Central this off-season. No sooner had the division been thrown open by the season-ending injury to Victor Martinez then the Tigers locked up Fielder to a 9 year deal (big gulp of anxiety for the 2013 season). Fielder’s abilities are well documented; here is what we all have to fear over the next decade. Through 7 seasons Fielder’s slash line is .282/.390/.540. He averages 37 HR, 106 RBI and despite not being a particularly good defensive 1B, the production he brings renders this fact unimportant. In my blind optimism I contended to my friend Joe that ‘Fielder might see a power decline in a pitchers ballpark like Comerica', Joe’s simple humbling reply, ‘it doesn’t really matter when you hit the ball 475 feet every time’, obviously an exaggeration, but point well made. Fielder is the cream of the central crop and should feast on a division that has a lot of sub-par pitching.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>2. Paul Konerko – White Sox</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">This was the toughest call to make in this category, Konerko, or Hosmer. Ultimately, despite Hosmer’s huge upside, I went with experience and consistency. Despite turning 36 in March, Konerko has been the cornerstone of the White Sox franchise for years, putting up outstanding numbers year after year. Konerko is an annual lock to put up 30 HR and 100 RBI, with an average around .280 to boot. Konerko also walks more than average, strikes out less than average and is a solid defensive 1B, with the type of leadership qualities a franchise like the White Sox, with weakness throughout their organization really needs. Expect Konerko to put up at least one more Konerko-like season to cap off an outstanding big-league career. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>3. Eric Hosmer – Royals</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Hosmer was subject to a ton of hype before his May call-up for the Royals and did not disappoint. The 3<sup>rd</sup> overall pick of the 2008 draft is going to be challenging Fielder for positional supremacy for years to come. The only reason he isn’t ranked above Konerko is that 2012 will be his first full big-league season; an excellent first full big league season will push him over the top. Hosmer put up consistently outstanding numbers in his prolonged MLB coming out party, averaging a HR every 27.5 ABs (league average every 36.4), while contributing a .293/.334/.465 line with 19 HR and even swiping 14 bags. If Hosmer can walk a little more and maintain his excellent SO%, he should improve across the board in an increasingly potent Royals hitting lineup. Simply put, if Hosmer continues to develop at the same rate, the Royals will have an all-star caliber 1B who contributes in all 5 offensive categories for the foreseeable future.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5CxVXfmDCV2VB3LNDfigU6hVJWB7-CCmQOFuHcJlNjIZP6Y7CYcDbussvHOaE8uM-w6r0UMcw3DpCcbO8SGXprchZlaudMf2F_Kz0arWLNtGmB311PaNwammXmMlrS-gVukduzSDfStbJ/s1600/657593.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5CxVXfmDCV2VB3LNDfigU6hVJWB7-CCmQOFuHcJlNjIZP6Y7CYcDbussvHOaE8uM-w6r0UMcw3DpCcbO8SGXprchZlaudMf2F_Kz0arWLNtGmB311PaNwammXmMlrS-gVukduzSDfStbJ/s320/657593.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>4. Justin Morneau – Twins</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Looking at Morneau’s career since his innocuous injury prior to the 2010 all-star break (a season in which he was putting up all-star caliber numbers) is a travesty. Since then Morneau managed just 69 big league games and has put up numbers not reflective of his huge talent. One more concussion related setback might call it a career for Morneau, who recently admitted ‘I don’t think there will be a career if this (concussion) is something I’m dealing with (for the long-term)’. That would be a real travesty.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">There is no way to predict what Morneau will contribute to the Twins this season. In an ideal situation the Twins would get 120-130 games rotating Morneau between 1B and DH. If he ever manages a return to his typical career form his slash line, glove, excellent BB% and SO% make him one of the elite 1B in baseball. This spring is it for Morneau as question marks hang over not only his season, but his career in the game.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>5. Casey Kotchman – Indians</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">The Indians brought in veteran journeyman Casey Kotchman this off-season coming off a one year stint with the Tampa Bay Rays to add depth at a position which belonged to Matt LaPorta in 2011. LaPorta and Kotchman will likely platoon at 1B this season with Santana also seeing some time to rest his body from catching. Kotchman had a good season with the Rays hitting .306 and getting on base at an excellent .378 clip over 148 games in Tampa Bay. Kotchman improved his SO rate and drew more walks in 2011, but above all else is the premier defensive 1B in the division, with an R<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">field </i>of 25 over 10 big league seasons. Indians fans can pick their poison at 1B – LaPorta with a little more pop, or Kotchman, defensively sound and a high OBP, either option is decidedly mediocre compared to the rest of the division.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-17664707611719228892012-02-26T11:38:00.000-08:002012-02-26T11:38:40.353-08:00Zumaya Done for the YearThe Twins announced today that Joel Zumaya is done for the season after tearing his ulnar collateral elbow ligament. While the time it took Zumaya (1 bullpen session) to be done for the year is almost comical, this should come as no surprise to Twins fans.<br />
<br />
GM Terry Ryan is expected to address the media regarding Zumaya on Monday. Zumaya's latest career setback throws an already inexperienced and iffy Twins bullpen into further uncertainty and it will be interesting to see which Twins relievers can step up during spring training and grasp a spot in a bullpen race that has been thrown wide open.JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-29085017917594683932012-02-25T08:29:00.000-08:002012-02-25T08:29:42.170-08:00Central Showdown - Catcher<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">Over the next few weeks, I thought it might be fun to break down the AL Central position by position ranking from top to bottom the best and worst that the division has to offer. Obviously some of these position battles are going to be divisive but I will do my best to justify my rankings as I go. As with all predictions and blogging, I am always happy to be proven wrong. Today we will start at catcher; I will be ranking from best to worst 1-5 for each position.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>1. Carlos Santana – Indians</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">I realize that this may immediately alienate Twins fans from continuing to want to read this list! But hear me out. The difficulty with this kind of ranking is so many players in the central (particularly with the Twins) have question marks concerning their health.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">In his first full big league season Santana broke out the power bat in a big way, bashing 27 HR and managing a decent .359 OBP despite his miserable .239 BA (mainly thanks to walking in approximately 15% of his PA, wow!) Santana suffered from a miserable .263 BaBIP in 2011 so with work in improving plate discipline by cutting down on strikeouts and improving contact, his average should rise in 2012. Don’t be surprised if he comes close to 30/100 with an average closer to .275. Defensively Santana threw out right on the league average of 28% of potential base stealers and despite being a slightly below average fielder (R<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">field </i>-4 in 2011), his offensive skill set should lead him to become the best power hitting catcher in baseball in 2012.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>2. Joe Mauer – Twins</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">The primary reason Mauer was not ranked number one on this particular list is the questions surrounding his health from 2011. While Mauer has reported to camp completely healthy, you can never be too careful. The acquisition of Ryan Doumit will be crucial for keeping Mauer’s bat in the lineup as much as possible.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Simply put, when Mauer is healthy, he has one of the sweetest swings in baseball. Despite a power outage since the Twins moved to Target field after his MVP season in 2010, Mauer is one of the league’s elite hitters. Through 9 major league seasons Mauer owns a slash line of .323/.401/.471, averages 96 runs scored, 15 HR and 90 RBI. Mauer own a career WAR of 40.3 and throws out an average of 35% of base runners. Mauer received a brutal backlash from Twins fans last season in the wake of being paid $23 million for the first of 8 seasons in his mega-pact with the Twins and only managing to take the field for 82 games. This simply speaks to how critical Mauer is to the Twins chances of success and how high a standard and expectation he has set for himself. If the Twins follow the Indians blueprint with Santana, moving him to DH and 1B to give his body the rest it needs, expect that monster average and OBP to return and a lot of runs to be scored, with or without the power stroke.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF6Q7WutTnwN4tkzyiXMhIrQqa41sXEIayZqWN07RSeo3YPJeNZh08I4Td89hXm8oKt2djjQvkg0721WA_YSEZDJ-9-208Wa1QxjTQUrPkEpz8xLEqsx-Lciwd2ICvBZJA6MtzCvd7r1ML/s1600/carlos-santana-swingjpg-bd8c7ea9f561aafb_large.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF6Q7WutTnwN4tkzyiXMhIrQqa41sXEIayZqWN07RSeo3YPJeNZh08I4Td89hXm8oKt2djjQvkg0721WA_YSEZDJ-9-208Wa1QxjTQUrPkEpz8xLEqsx-Lciwd2ICvBZJA6MtzCvd7r1ML/s320/carlos-santana-swingjpg-bd8c7ea9f561aafb_large.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>3. Alex Avila – Tigers</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Tiger’s fans might feel hard done by seeing Avila at number three on the list, especially after a season that had the Tigers catcher receiving some MVP recognition. The truth is, Avila was pretty lucky in 2011. Avila’s BaBIP jumped to a ridiculous .366 last season after having averaged .293 in the previous two. Avila’s average should come back down to earth this season to the tune of something around .270. Avila has a solid power stroke, with an ISO of .211 in 2011, walks a ton – (73 times last year), and strikes out a ton – 131 times last year. Avila threw out an excellent 32% of base stealers in 2011 and has improved his skills defensively behind the plate. Unfortunately for Avila, he plays at a position at which the AL Central is loaded. He will need a repeat performance of 2011 to be considered one of the games elite catchers.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>4. Salvador Perez – Royals</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Assuming that Salvador Perez picks up from where he left off in his excellent September call-up he could well be the Royals opening day catcher. In 148 big league ABs Perez managed a .331 average with 3 HR and a decent .361 OBP along the way. Similarly to Avila, Perez benefited from a bloated .362 BaBIP and 2011 was his first season playing above the A level minor league ball. Perez has suffered from a lack o plate discipline in his 5 minor league seasons (managing only 71 walks over that entire span) as well as striking out a little too much. This should lead Royals fans to temper their expectations of Perez going forward this season, particularly with regard to his batting average. If he can remain somewhat consistent he should get plenty of playing time to exhibit the decent pop in his stroke and with the sub-par Brayan Pena being his most significant challenger, he will have every opportunity to earn the Royals everyday job. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>5. A. J. Pierzynski – White Sox</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Most Twins fans can recall the aftermath of the 2003 season in which Pierzynski was traded away to the Giants in one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history, for a package that included Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser (who, aside from Carl Pavano, had some of the most questionable and entertaining facial hair in recent Twins history). </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Since moving onto the White Sox in 2005, Pierzynski has been nothing but consistent. He typically racks up a line of .285/.325/.425, with 15 HR and 70 RBI. Pierzynski is beginning to show signs of age and at 35 has seen his power output decrease steadily over the last three seasons. The Twins 3<sup>rd</sup> round draft choice of 1994 draft has declined defensively, with a weak arm and a worsening ability in the field. Pierzynski is a fierce competitor and will continue to be a solid presence behind the plate, but his best days are far behind him.</div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-44085936690900520592012-02-22T12:49:00.000-08:002012-02-22T12:49:51.866-08:00Danny Valenca - Growing Pains<div class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
table.MsoTableGrid
{mso-style-name:"Table Grid";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
border:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
mso-border-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-border-insideh:.5pt solid windowtext;
mso-border-insidev:.5pt solid windowtext;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]-->Danny Valencia is another Twin who suffered from over-inflated expectations in 2011. After an excellent debut in 2010 in which he contributed a .311/.351/.448 slash line to help guide the Twins to another AL Central title, Valencia struggled in his sophomore campaign eking out a tepid .246/.294/.383. Despite this decline, Valencia had some successes, leading the Twins in HR and playing in 154 games, a significant achievement given the constant nagging injuries that plagued the rest of the big league roster.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">I have to admit I have a hard time liking Valencia, on the surface he is arrogant, which belies his status as a mediocre hitter and a horrible fielder. I wanted to look at his numbers from his rookie season to see if there were significant factors that contributed to his sophomore slump and what we can expect from him in 2012. Comparing some of Valencia’s numbers from 2010 and 2011 yield fascinating results; In 2010 Valencia had a monster BaBIP (batting average for balls in play) of .345, compared to a tough luck figure of only .275 in 2011. Below is a table that compares Valencia’s slash line from each of the last 2 seasons with what the average MLB hitter would contribute in the same ballpark. In other words <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lg</i>BA represents the BA of an average MLB hitter whose home park is Target Field, similarly so with <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lg</i>OBP and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lg</i>SLG.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div align="center"> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid windowtext; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 480;"><tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"> <td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">Year</div></td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">Valencia BA</div></td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lg</i>BA</div></td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">Valencia OBP</div></td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lg</i>OBP</div></td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">Valencia SLG</div></td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.3pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lg</i>SLG</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;"> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">2010</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.311</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.258</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.351</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.325</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.448</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.3pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.404</div></td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">2011</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.246</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.256</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.294</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.321</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.25pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.383</div></td> <td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.3pt;" valign="top" width="84"> <div class="MsoNormal">.405</div></td> </tr>
</tbody></table></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Clearly Valencia stacks up excellently against the rest of the league in his major league debut in 2010. Valencia falls below the adjusted league BA, OBP and SLG in 2011 but it is the OBP which is most concerning and severely limited his production. There are a number of factors that may have contributed to this.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Firstly, Valencia does not walk enough. He falls about 2% below the MLB average for BB/9, this may not seem like much, but equates to around 15 walks per season, a significant on base presence; this however, has been a statistic common to both of Valencia’s seasons in the big leagues. Valencia also has shorter plate appearances than the average MLB hitter. On average over his first two seasons, Valencia has seen 3.68 pitches per PA, compared with 3.82 for the average MLB player. While this may seem like an infinitesimal difference it equates to about 100 extra pitches over the course of the season. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbejFPGIB6Sgu2NXWumq65wIRLxsY32_f0GXAfcNd4bwkyxX-hdiNfZzV6MX23Ob-XMJgzDgupw1NoT-vvOwkMl9tFPWj0FWml6tV6CKKD_X_1UvZdOiQA0eLe16olBZQsKNsyrbAbsQHe/s1600/danny-valencia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbejFPGIB6Sgu2NXWumq65wIRLxsY32_f0GXAfcNd4bwkyxX-hdiNfZzV6MX23Ob-XMJgzDgupw1NoT-vvOwkMl9tFPWj0FWml6tV6CKKD_X_1UvZdOiQA0eLe16olBZQsKNsyrbAbsQHe/s320/danny-valencia.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2012 will be an important year for Danny Valencia</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal">Valencia has begun to develop more patience at the plate, increasing his walk rate from 2010 to 2011 as well as seeing more 2-0 and 3-0 counts than the average MLB hitter. If Valencia is getting himself in more and more of these excellent counts and beginning to walk more, what else could have contributed to his regression (besides a crashing BaBIP)? It is interesting to see what Valencia does when he is in these hitter’s counts. On average Valencia swung at less first pitches, had significantly more strikes looking than the average hitter and struck out looking 5% more than the average MLB hitter. Valencia only swung at 67% of the strikes he saw, compared with a league average of 72%. Finally, Valencia fouled off 7% less of the strikes he saw than an average MLB hitter. All of these statistics make me question two things, the quality of Valencia’s eye at the plate and his timing.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">It seems that what we have seen from Valencia is an increased ability to get in solid ‘hitters’ counts followed by an extreme defensiveness at the plate. His ability to get in situations where he can get a good pitch to hit seems to be offset by an inability to get consistently excellent contact on pitches. Valencia suffers from a below average line drive rate and a significantly above average % of fly balls that fall in the infield. Valencia it seems needs to work on his approach at the plate to continue to increase his ability to manipulate counts, build on his increased BB/9 from 2011 and exert a more controlled aggression in hitter’s counts. Valencia is a right handed pull hitter well-suited to the confines of Target Field. Similarly to Alexi Casilla, a more measured aggression at the plate may serve him well. If he can work through these issues in spring Twins fans can expect Valencia to split the difference of his 2010 and 2011 campaigns.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Predicted Slash Line .270/.320/.390 18 HR 75 RBI</b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Now we have done enough looking back on 2011 it is time to look forward to 2012. The next few entries will be a series previewing the AL Central position by position, taking a look at who is primed for a big season and who will be in for big disappointment.<b> </b> </div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-65103329572777818012012-02-19T16:52:00.000-08:002012-02-19T16:52:32.005-08:00Last Man In? Jared Burton<div class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]-->The Twins are taking a slightly different approach to spring training this year, scheduling an extra three days of workouts prior to their March 3<sup>rd</sup> opener against the Rays. This increased workload will allow the Twins a few more days to work on fundamentals after showing incredibly poor defense and consistently committing rudimentary errors throughout the 2011 season. The Twins are also bringing more players to camp this year in order to create a sense of urgency surrounding jobs on the big league roster. Among these are 26 non-roster invitees, including 11 pitchers. Some of these, including Jason Bulger, Phil Dumatrait and Jared Burton have significant big league experience. Of the three, Burton seems perhaps the most likely to compete for one of the final few Twins bullpen spots available.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Burton was originally drafted by the Oakland Athletics in 2002 (8<sup>th</sup> round) but was selected by the Reds in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. Burton has had a recent history of injuries including shoulder inflammation and a variety of muscle strains, managing only 8 innings in the last 2 big league seasons. Despite this, Burton fits the mold of what the Twins are looking for in a solid bullpen addition. Over 5 major league seasons Burton has managed a ERA of 3.41 (.397 FIP), WHIP of 1.325, struck out 143 in 169 innings and held opposition hitters to an average of .237, solid numbers for a middle of the bullpen arm.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3wvIMACiiCmVjdZBgrbuShmr7VD6rNyBhfm23TbL15P1ekgt0tPC9wUZbseecngo9lfbkOfpN1D7m5MpPuNQsogSCGTgkiRy8qFq3odGcq1BacZMF9d3ajmWyL1TguMo8i3NbQqa590JI/s1600/Jared-Burton.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3wvIMACiiCmVjdZBgrbuShmr7VD6rNyBhfm23TbL15P1ekgt0tPC9wUZbseecngo9lfbkOfpN1D7m5MpPuNQsogSCGTgkiRy8qFq3odGcq1BacZMF9d3ajmWyL1TguMo8i3NbQqa590JI/s1600/Jared-Burton.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jared Burton may be a dark horse for a bullpen spot this spring.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=8346&position=P&pitch=FA" target="_blank">A look at Burton’s velocity</a> shows a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s and a decent looking slider. Burton should thrive in Target Field. In 5 seasons in hitter friendly Great American Ball Park Burton was exceptionally good at keeping the ball inside the park, 0.7 HR/9, has a solid whiff rate of 7.6 SO/9 and while the amount of free passes he issues has been consistently high 3.9 BB/9 an improved Twins defense should help him limit the damage his lack of control may cost him. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Burton also appears to have some deception to his delivery with only 5.8% of fly balls becoming HR (compared to the MLB average of 7.5%) as well as when healthy making opposing hitters watch his stuff go by, with a L/SO of 38% in 2008, compared to the MLB average of just 25%. If Burton has a solid spring he may seize an opportunity in an iffy and inexperienced Twins bullpen to see if he can replicate his solid big league numbers from the early part of his career. At this point, taking a flyer on Burton would be preferable to the perennially sub-par Alex Burnett, who has shown little to no growth over his first two MLB seasons, look out for Burton as a spring surprise. </div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8949224216341418576.post-37100760897571187492012-02-15T14:14:00.000-08:002012-02-15T14:14:56.813-08:00Bullpen Shape Pt 2<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif][if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif][if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
</style> <![endif][if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ansi-language:#0400;
mso-fareast-language:#0400;
mso-bidi-language:#0400;}
</style> <![endif]--> <div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Lefty Specialist – Brian Duensing</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">With the rotation seemingly filled out with Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn and Marquis, Duensing seems destined for a return to the bullpen, where he has previously excelled. Thank goodness, Duensing was the definition of ineffective against right handed hitters last season, giving up an eye-popping .330 BA against and 20 HR in just 470 ABs. Looking back to 2010 where he primarily fulfilled the role he will in 2012 for the Twins, as a left handed specialist out of the bullpen, the southpaw had the number of most of the lefties he faced. In 2010 he held opposing lefties to just a .167 BA against and an OBP of just .217. A return to those numbers will be important for the Twins after the loss of Jose Mijares, who despite having various fitness and locker room problems had functioned effectively as the Twins lefty specialist since the departure of Dennys Reyes.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Longman – Anthony Swarzak</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Swarzak is a prototypical long-man. He had a solid 2011 in which he posted an ERA of 4.32, showed good control 2.3 BB/9 and kept the ball inside the park, albeit at cavernous Target Field, 0.8 HR/9. These stats solidified Swarzak’s position in a weak Twins bullpen and as a possible spot starter. It will be interesting to see if he gets a shot at the rotation should Nick Blackburn consistently struggle again in 2012. If he does he will need to improve upon his 4.9 SO/9 to have any hope of holding down a starting job, especially with Liam Hendriks knocking on the door at AAA Rochester.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>The Question Mark – Alex Burnett</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgntrEhJrHDN-oPHqFlWusAd9i_TzQCSddK67c618r0VcBV3_rqHz_3Q7CDxc6Tw6SsMhAAlx44hwCZhNsOapIcUqm4PQeXD6o4BpJDPD3F0epqITioJ2Vlisn389XZmu3DVoSDdotF0Gf3/s1600/YP6u938h.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgntrEhJrHDN-oPHqFlWusAd9i_TzQCSddK67c618r0VcBV3_rqHz_3Q7CDxc6Tw6SsMhAAlx44hwCZhNsOapIcUqm4PQeXD6o4BpJDPD3F0epqITioJ2Vlisn389XZmu3DVoSDdotF0Gf3/s1600/YP6u938h.jpg" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"></span></u></b>Burnett is a frustrating piece of the Twins bullpen picture. He has solid stuff including a fastball that can reach the 93-94 mph range but the one thing he has proven in his first two big-league seasons is that he doesn’t know how to use it. Burnett has shown remarkable consistency in those two seasons, unfortunately for the Twins, it has been consistently bad. Between 2010 and 2011, Burnett has logged just under 100 innings, with a horrendous 1.48 WHIP, poor control 4 BB/9 and only an average ability to put hitters away 6.4 SO/9. Burnett is still the right side of 25 but this might be his last full-season to impress the Twins before they look in another direction for reliable bullpen arms. He can certainly throw; he has this season to show he can pitch too.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>The Rest - 2 spots remaining</u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">With 2 spots remaining this is perhaps the area Twins fans feel the most frustration with going into camp. There were a bevy of experienced and dependable righties on the free agent market this off-season (Dan Wheeler who was signed by the Indians to a minor league deal in particular is of note, as was the Dodgers Todd Coffey), however the Twins chose to let their internal options battle it out for the remaining spots. Let’s take a look at the possibilities.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br />
</span></u></b></div><div class="MsoNormal">Kyle Waldrop - 5.73 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 11 IP in 2011</div><div class="MsoNormal">Lester Oliveros - 4.05 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 13 IP with the Twins in 2011 (nearly 5 BB/9 will do that!)</div><div class="MsoNormal">Scott Diamond - 5.08 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 39 IP with the Twins in 2011</div><div class="MsoNormal">Terry Doyle - 2.94 ERA and an excellent 1.18 WHIP in 422 minor league innings over the last 4 years. Doyle was the Twins Rule 5 draft selection this winter and will certainly go into camp with a chance at making the pen.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">The Twins also have several non-roster invitees with big league experience, including Jason Bulger, Phil Dumatrait and Jared Burton. The Twins have certainly left their bullpen battle open-ended heading into spring, understandable given their performance last season. While they can expect to have at least a partial bounce back year after solidifying their defense this off-season, the front office may regret not grabbing one more veteran right handed arm to provide stability and leadership in an AL Central with increasingly formidable hitting. </div>JDCamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07021140009053841117noreply@blogger.com0