Central Showdown - Third Base

Miguel Cabrera – Tigers

Third base in the central was irrevocably changed by the Tigers signing Prince Fielder to a nine year, $209 million deal. Miguel Cabrera, though some years and about 50 lbs ago has plenty of experience playing 3^rd base with the Marlins and was the logical choice for the Tigers to move back there, instantly making him the class of the division.

Simply put, Cabrera is a machine. In 2011 he posted career highs in average .344 and OBP .448 and has averaged 33 HR and 118 RBI in a nine season span. Cabrera’s other power metrics are equally frightening, he has a career ISO of .239, with a career HR/FB % of nearly double the league average and has a SO/BB ration of just 1.57. Despite having a poor glove throughout his career and having some extra weight to carry around at the hot corner – Cabrera is one of the top 3 players in the game. Oh and one more thing, since his first full season in 2004 he has averaged just shy of 157 games played per season! Who is Detroit’s only player that can better that you ask? Price Fielder at just shy of 160, wow!

Mike Moustakas – Royals

The drop off after Cabrera is dramatic but in Moustakas the Royals may have something special. Moose’s big league debut was consistently overshadowed by an underwhelming initial call-up to the big league roster and Eric Hosmer’s consistent excellence. In September however, Moustakas gave everyone a taste of his capabilities with a .352 average to go along with four second half home runs and 26 RBI. Overall Moose put up a 2011 line of .263/.309/.367 along with some solid contact and plate discipline metrics. Moustakas was a higher rated prospect than Hosmer moving through the Royals system (which including an unbelievable season at 2 minor league levels in which he hit .322 with 36 HR and 124 RBI). Moose has star power but at the tender age of 23, it is unclear whether he is ready to translate that talent into major league numbers as early as 2012.

Danny Valencia – Twins

After impressing as a middle-season call-up in 2010 to the tune of .311/.351/.448 line in 85 games, Valencia game down to earth in his sophomore campaign after his BAbip fell 70 points between the 2 seasons. Valencia did show some pop in his second season, launching 15 HR and driving in 72 runs. Valencia also showed signs of improvement in his plate discipline; despite striking out more in 2011, he increased his walk rate and pitches per plate appearance but continuing to improve upon these marks will be crucial if Valencia is to overturn a mediocre 2011. Ron Gardenhire publicly criticized Valencia throughout the season for defensive lapses in concentration and lamented Valencia for trying to do too much with the ball instead of relying on his natural strength and pull power stroke. Valencia is off to a hot start this spring, so it will be interesting to see if he can bounce back in 2012.

Lonnie Chisenhall – Indians

Chisenhall was a mid-year promotion by the Indians who contributed solidly to their push for the AL Central before the Tigers ran away with it late in the year. The Indians hope Chisenhall can develop into a solid offensive and defensive contributor who can man their hot corner for the next 10 years. In 66 games he was good for a .255/.284/.415 line with 7 HR and 22 RBI while providing a solid glove at third. Chisenhall’s main Achilles heal in his debut was a putrid 3.6% BB/9 (MLB average 8.1%). This combined with an above average SO% led to Chisenhall’s miserable OBP. If he can improve his plate discipline (and his .344 OBP in four minor league seasons suggests he can) the Indians third base job will be his to lose for the foreseeable future.

Brent Morel – White Sox

Morel was taken by the White Sox in the 3^rd round of the 2008 amateur draft and before the 2011 season Baseball America rated him as the #85 prospect in all of baseball. In his first two seasons however, he has failed to live up to his billing as a top prospect. Despite showing growth from his 2010 debut Morel managed a batting slash line of just .245/.287/.366 in 2011. Morel’s OBP was still atrocious last season despite improving his LD% and cutting his SO% in half. In two big league seasons Morel has had a BAbip of .262 so he may be in for a significant rise in OBP and batting average if he can find a few more holes this season. Still for my money, Morel is the weakest in a pretty weak field at 3B in the AL Central.

Danny Valenca - Growing Pains

Danny Valencia is another Twin who suffered from over-inflated expectations in 2011. After an excellent debut in 2010 in which he contributed a .311/.351/.448 slash line to help guide the Twins to another AL Central title, Valencia struggled in his sophomore campaign eking out a tepid .246/.294/.383. Despite this decline, Valencia had some successes, leading the Twins in HR and playing in 154 games, a significant achievement given the constant nagging injuries that plagued the rest of the big league roster.

I have to admit I have a hard time liking Valencia, on the surface he is arrogant, which belies his status as a mediocre hitter and a horrible fielder. I wanted to look at his numbers from his rookie season to see if there were significant factors that contributed to his sophomore slump and what we can expect from him in 2012. Comparing some of Valencia’s numbers from 2010 and 2011 yield fascinating results; In 2010 Valencia had a monster BaBIP (batting average for balls in play) of .345, compared to a tough luck figure of only .275 in 2011. Below is a table that compares Valencia’s slash line from each of the last 2 seasons with what the average MLB hitter would contribute in the same ballpark. In other words lgBA represents the BA of an average MLB hitter whose home park is Target Field, similarly so with lgOBP and lgSLG.

Year	Valencia BA	lgBA	Valencia OBP	lgOBP	Valencia SLG	lgSLG
2010	.311	.258	.351	.325	.448	.404
2011	.246	.256	.294	.321	.383	.405

Clearly Valencia stacks up excellently against the rest of the league in his major league debut in 2010. Valencia falls below the adjusted league BA, OBP and SLG in 2011 but it is the OBP which is most concerning and severely limited his production. There are a number of factors that may have contributed to this.

Firstly, Valencia does not walk enough. He falls about 2% below the MLB average for BB/9, this may not seem like much, but equates to around 15 walks per season, a significant on base presence; this however, has been a statistic common to both of Valencia’s seasons in the big leagues. Valencia also has shorter plate appearances than the average MLB hitter. On average over his first two seasons, Valencia has seen 3.68 pitches per PA, compared with 3.82 for the average MLB player. While this may seem like an infinitesimal difference it equates to about 100 extra pitches over the course of the season. 

2012 will be an important year for Danny Valencia

Valencia has begun to develop more patience at the plate, increasing his walk rate from 2010 to 2011 as well as seeing more 2-0 and 3-0 counts than the average MLB hitter. If Valencia is getting himself in more and more of these excellent counts and beginning to walk more, what else could have contributed to his regression (besides a crashing BaBIP)? It is interesting to see what Valencia does when he is in these hitter’s counts. On average Valencia swung at less first pitches, had significantly more strikes looking than the average hitter and struck out looking 5% more than the average MLB hitter. Valencia only swung at 67% of the strikes he saw, compared with a league average of 72%. Finally, Valencia fouled off 7% less of the strikes he saw than an average MLB hitter. All of these statistics make me question two things, the quality of Valencia’s eye at the plate and his timing.

It seems that what we have seen from Valencia is an increased ability to get in solid ‘hitters’ counts followed by an extreme defensiveness at the plate. His ability to get in situations where he can get a good pitch to hit seems to be offset by an inability to get consistently excellent contact on pitches. Valencia suffers from a below average line drive rate and a significantly above average % of fly balls that fall in the infield. Valencia it seems needs to work on his approach at the plate to continue to increase his ability to manipulate counts, build on his increased BB/9 from 2011 and exert a more controlled aggression in hitter’s counts. Valencia is a right handed pull hitter well-suited to the confines of Target Field. Similarly to Alexi Casilla, a more measured aggression at the plate may serve him well. If he can work through these issues in spring Twins fans can expect Valencia to split the difference of his 2010 and 2011 campaigns.

Predicted Slash Line .270/.320/.390 18 HR 75 RBI

Now we have done enough looking back on 2011 it is time to look forward to 2012. The next few entries will be a series previewing the AL Central position by position, taking a look at who is primed for a big season and who will be in for big disappointment.