Revere VS Kubel

A recent article in the Star Tribune by John Bonnes weighed the expectations Twins fans should have of their team this forthcoming season, using a comparison of the 2011 and 2012 rosters as its evidence. One of the significant points made was the difficulty in comparing Ben Revere and Jason Kubel, being such different players with varying styles. This will be doubly difficult given Revere’s lone season with the big league club, compared to Kubel’s five full seasons. Nevertheless this does make for an interesting comparison; plucky greenhorn against stoic veteran, table setting speed against power hitting lefty.

For the purposes of this comparison we cannot use Revere’s minor league numbers as the simply aren’t representative of the quality of pitching faced by big league hitters, Revere’s sample size is therefore somewhat limited, but let us examine these two hitters in 3 categories; hitting, defense and baserunning.

Hitting

Let us start with the most important of hitting statistics OBP. Through 481 plate appearances in 2011 Revere’s OBP was .310 – certainly on the low side for a top of the order slap hitter with no power. Kubel meanwhile posted an OBP of .332 in an injury shortened seasons in which he contributed 401 PA. The reason for this difference it seems, is Revere’s unwillingness to take a walk. In 2011 Revere walked in just 5.4% of his plate appearances, compared to the major league average of 8.3% or Kubel’s figure of 8%. To put this into real numbers Revere walked just 26 times in 2011; if he were to increase his plate discipline and reduce the number of times he struck out looking (his looking strike rate was 11% above the league average) he would have walked 40 times – (and as a result attempted to steal 5 more bases) a significant increase for a player who generated 7 runs above the league average from his base-running in 2011.

When it comes to power Kubel has an obvious advantage. Kubel’s OBP was .766, forty points above the league average of .726, while Revere’s lagged at .619. Kubel dwarfs Revere in every power hitting category and almost every hitting category available. While Kubel’s WAR of 1.3 outgains Revere’s of 0.8 there are some interesting comparisons to be found in comparing their batting value to the team.

While Revere is clearly an inferior hitter, his Rbat (number of runs above or below average a players hitting was) being -18 to Kubel’s 5 last year his baserunning was vastly superior (Rbase figures being 7 and -2 respectively). Revere and Kubel’s oRAR (offensive runs above replacement) and oWAR (offensive wins above replacement level) mirrored each other almost exactly, meaning that they offered, although by different means, similar offensive value to the Twins, at least in 2011.

Baserunning

Even the most casual eye could determine that Revere is a more significant on base than threat than Kubel. A deeper analysis is required however, than merely stolen bases and runs scored. Revere stole 34 bases in 2011 while being caught 9 times. Revere’s stolen bases (a Twins rookie record) certainly excited Twins fans who foresaw a player who might become a 45-50 stolen base threat. Truly elite base-runners typically range between 83-85% success rate, and while Revere’s 79% shows promise, his SB% of 2nd base was only 75%, a rate which needs to be improved, as SB% is a far more accurate measure of impact upon a game than merely the number of bases stolen over a season.

Revere’s top end speed becomes evident when comparing the two player’s runs scored percentage or RS%. This measures the % of times a baserunner scores a run. In 2011 Revere scored 37% of the time when on base, compared to 21% from Kubel. While this is clearly Revere’s MO given his lack of power, this is an impressive figure, particularly given the Twins horrendous hitting throughout the order last season. Comparable elite players such as Jose Reyes, who had a career year in 2011, scored 43% of the time he was on base in 2011.

Defense

When looking at basic values Kubel would appear to have had a better year than Revere defensively. Kubel’s fielding % was .992 compared to .976 from Revere. Revere certainly made some rash decisions in covering the huge amount of ground he managed in center field. These numbers however, do not tell the full story.

In 2011 Revere saved 9 runs above the average major leaguer with his play in the outfield, while Kubel cost the Twins -3, while his range factor was 2.80 compared to Kubel’s 2.21. Kubel’s solid fielding % and decent overall numbers belie his ineptitude as a fielder; he appeared in only 58 games in the field in 2011. While Revere has been criticized for having a weak arm, his excellent range and ability to prevent runs make him a preferable outfield defensive option than the pedestrian Kubel.

Consider this; Ben Revere just played his rookie season with the Twins. He certainly experienced his share of highs and lows and the growing pains associated with a first major league season. Despite all this there is reason for optimism surrounding Revere. He will make around $350,000 in 2012, compared to the two year $15 million pact the Diamondbacks overpaid for Kubel. Revere is not without his limitations. He has to increase his stolen base efficiency, his judgment in the field and above all his OBP if he is to become a truly effective top of the order table setter for the Twins. If he is able to accomplish these improvements he will bring balance to a Minnesota team that was heavy on left-handed hitters and light on stolen bases. Add a much needed draft pick that the Twins gained from Kubel’s departure and giving Revere a full-time shot might just herald the second coming of the piranhas.

The Outfield - Question Mark???

Cuddyer??? Span??? Revere??? Kubel??? You get the idea. So many questions surround the Twins outfield this off-season. Michael Cuddyer remains the top free-agent priority of the front office, with a 3 year offer on the table worth around $24 million.

Let’s start with #5. Cuddyer is rightfully a favorite with Twins faithful, having been in the organization his whole career, producing an excellently consistent .272 BA, 20 HR and 82 RBI average as well as a 272/343/451 line over 11 big league seasons. Add this to his versatility, having played at every outfield position besides SS in his major league career as well as making a relief appearance pitching for the Twins beleaguered bullpen in 2011 and he is a valuable weapon indeed.

Cuddyer is also a renowned positive locker room influence, a power bat from the right side of the plate – the list goes on. It seems unlikely that the Twins will be able to keep both Cuddyer and Kubel, who both rejected arbitration offers to test the waters of free agency. The Twins front office is waiting with baited breath on the decision of Cuddyer, who has drawn interest from financial power houses such as the Red Sox and Phillies, as well as other suitors such as the Rockies and Dodgers.

Span will be another key piece if the Twins are to challenge for the Central in 2012. Owning a career OBP of .361, having an excellent glove, good speed and a friendly contract that will keep him under team control until 2015, Span was another huge loss for the Twins in 2011 missing 92 games with concussion symptoms that had Twins fans asking if they were experiencing Groundhog Day. Span is a table setter at the top of the lineup and one of the truly underrated lead-off hitters in baseball.

Ben Revere made a solid start to his big league career, leading the big league team with 34 steals (a Twins rookie record). While the youngster is not without his flaws, having a much below average arm, he makes up for it with excellent range. Revere needs to work in the off-season on strengthening the areas in which his talent lies. With very little power Revere is a slap hitter with speed who has to be consistently on base to be truly effective. In 481 plate appearances with the big league club in 2011 Revere only had 26 walks, good for a BB% (amount his plate appearances result in a walk) of 5.4%, well below the league average of 8.3%. Revere on average saw 3.52 pitches per plate appearance in 2011, compared to a league average of 3.82, with a typical top of the order players’ number being a little higher still, Denard Span’s career pitches per plate appearance being 3.84, for example.

Despite having excellent speed Revere also needs to improve his base stealing. He was thrown out 21% of the time or 9 out of 43 attempts. Elite base-runners typically have a stolen base % in the low to mid 80s. If Revere can improve his OBP and SB% he and Span could form a dangerously speedy 1-2 tandem at the top of the Twins lineup while covering a huge amount of ground in the outfield.

If Cuddyer does re-sign with the Twins it seems that Jason Kubel, another career long Twin will be on his way out the door. Financially it is impossible for the Twins to resign both (especially given that Terry Ryan has also sighted the bullpen and rotation as other areas he would like to strengthen). Kubel was another Twin who struggled to stay healthy in 2011, taking the field in only 99 contests. He made solid power contribution across the board but since his break out year in 2009 when he posted a line of 300/369/539 with 28 HR and 103 RBI; he has struggled to live up to his talent level. Having Kubel on the roster instead of Cuddyer would add the problem of all three of the Twins power bats being lefties. Kubel has been a solid power contributor in the last 4 seasons but does not seem destined to break out and achieve the super-stardom that many predicted for the South Dakota native early in his career before injury slowed his progress to the big league level.

Josh Willingham is a name that has been bandied around as a potential replacement for Cuddyer should he seek pastures new. Willingham set career highs in RBI 98 and HR 29 but is either on par or slightly inferior to Cuddyer in almost every other statistical category, including in the field, while also being unfamiliar with the Twins personnel and system. The shape and balance of the outfield in 2012 will undoubtedly rest on the decision of #5.