Central Showdown - First Base

First base is another position in which the AL Central has an embarrassment of riches, not least with the Tigers addition of Prince Fielder to a 9 year $180 million deal this off-season. Question marks surround Paul Konerko’s continuing production as he reaches senior citizen status, super-stud Eric Hosmer’s first full season in the Bigs and Twins cornerstone Justin Morneau’s return from two injury ridden seasons.

1. Prince Fielder – Tigers

The Tigers certainly made the biggest splash in the AL Central this off-season. No sooner had the division been thrown open by the season-ending injury to Victor Martinez then the Tigers locked up Fielder to a 9 year deal (big gulp of anxiety for the 2013 season). Fielder’s abilities are well documented; here is what we all have to fear over the next decade. Through 7 seasons Fielder’s slash line is .282/.390/.540. He averages 37 HR, 106 RBI and despite not being a particularly good defensive 1B, the production he brings renders this fact unimportant. In my blind optimism I contended to my friend Joe that ‘Fielder might see a power decline in a pitchers ballpark like Comerica', Joe’s simple humbling reply, ‘it doesn’t really matter when you hit the ball 475 feet every time’, obviously an exaggeration, but point well made. Fielder is the cream of the central crop and should feast on a division that has a lot of sub-par pitching.

2. Paul Konerko – White Sox

This was the toughest call to make in this category, Konerko, or Hosmer. Ultimately, despite Hosmer’s huge upside, I went with experience and consistency. Despite turning 36 in March, Konerko has been the cornerstone of the White Sox franchise for years, putting up outstanding numbers year after year. Konerko is an annual lock to put up 30 HR and 100 RBI, with an average around .280 to boot. Konerko also walks more than average, strikes out less than average and is a solid defensive 1B, with the type of leadership qualities a franchise like the White Sox, with weakness throughout their organization really needs. Expect Konerko to put up at least one more Konerko-like season to cap off an outstanding big-league career.

3. Eric Hosmer – Royals

Hosmer was subject to a ton of hype before his May call-up for the Royals and did not disappoint. The 3^rd overall pick of the 2008 draft is going to be challenging Fielder for positional supremacy for years to come. The only reason he isn’t ranked above Konerko is that 2012 will be his first full big-league season; an excellent first full big league season will push him over the top. Hosmer put up consistently outstanding numbers in his prolonged MLB coming out party, averaging a HR every 27.5 ABs (league average every 36.4), while contributing a .293/.334/.465 line with 19 HR and even swiping 14 bags. If Hosmer can walk a little more and maintain his excellent SO%, he should improve across the board in an increasingly potent Royals hitting lineup. Simply put, if Hosmer continues to develop at the same rate, the Royals will have an all-star caliber 1B who contributes in all 5 offensive categories for the foreseeable future.

4. Justin Morneau – Twins

Looking at Morneau’s career since his innocuous injury prior to the 2010 all-star break (a season in which he was putting up all-star caliber numbers) is a travesty. Since then Morneau managed just 69 big league games and has put up numbers not reflective of his huge talent. One more concussion related setback might call it a career for Morneau, who recently admitted ‘I don’t think there will be a career if this (concussion) is something I’m dealing with (for the long-term)’. That would be a real travesty.

There is no way to predict what Morneau will contribute to the Twins this season. In an ideal situation the Twins would get 120-130 games rotating Morneau between 1B and DH. If he ever manages a return to his typical career form his slash line, glove, excellent BB% and SO% make him one of the elite 1B in baseball. This spring is it for Morneau as question marks hang over not only his season, but his career in the game.

5. Casey Kotchman – Indians

The Indians brought in veteran journeyman Casey Kotchman this off-season coming off a one year stint with the Tampa Bay Rays to add depth at a position which belonged to Matt LaPorta in 2011. LaPorta and Kotchman will likely platoon at 1B this season with Santana also seeing some time to rest his body from catching. Kotchman had a good season with the Rays hitting .306 and getting on base at an excellent .378 clip over 148 games in Tampa Bay. Kotchman improved his SO rate and drew more walks in 2011, but above all else is the premier defensive 1B in the division, with an Rfield of 25 over 10 big league seasons. Indians fans can pick their poison at 1B – LaPorta with a little more pop, or Kotchman, defensively sound and a high OBP, either option is decidedly mediocre compared to the rest of the division.

The AL Central – A Prince’s New Kingdom

Prince Fielder agreed upon a 9 year $214 million deal with Detroit Monday, making an incredible splash for a Tigers team that was seeking to recover from the seemingly insurmountable blow of losing consistently excellent Victor Martinez for the 2012 season to a torn ACL.

Fielder will make his return to the field where he hit jacks during batting practice as a 12 year old and his father, Cecil, launched 51 HR for the 1990 Tigers. The Twins will be safe from facing all 3 of Detroit’s intimidating middle order for at least a season so it might be interesting to examine how what the Tigers lose without Martinez is offset by the acquisition of Fielder.

The Tigers now have a huge amount tied up in four players; Fielder, 9 years - $214 million, Cabrera, in the midst of a $153 million contract which expires in 2015, Martinez, 4 year and $50 million and Justin Verlander, 5 years, $80 million. The acquisition of Fielder puts the Tigers payroll at around $128 million (wouldn’t it be great to have an extra $30 million to spend?!) and while this is a truly elite nucleus this financial commitment may give the Tigers very little financial wiggle room in forthcoming seasons (having $78 million tied up in 4 players alone for at least 3 more seasons).

Fielder adds clout to a Tigers lineup already brimming with power hitters

In the short term the Tigers may move Cabrera back to his old stomping grounds with the team now known as the Miami Marlins, 3B and slot Fielder in at 1B. When Martinez returns however, it will be interesting to see how master juggler Jim Leyland handles his DH situation.

Let’s get down to brass tacks. In the last 3 seasons Fielder has averaged 161.6 games (yes, you read that correctly), while Martinez has been susceptible to the occasional injury riddled season, averaging just 109 games in that same span.

While Martinez provided an important option for the Tigers at catcher the emergence of Alex Avila as an offensive force has rendered that loss significantly less of a blow. Comparing Martinez and Fielder’s numbers over the last 3 seasons yield some intriguing results. Martinez is an outstanding hitter averaging a line of 323/379/490 with a 162 game average of 20 HR and 104 RBI. This compares to Fielder’s 286/409/546 line over the last 3 seasons with a 162 game average of 37 HR and 106 RBI. Fielder’s staggering OBP is due to his averaging 110 BB over the last 3 years. Fielder has also averaged 708 plate appearances so the Twins rotation will be seeing a lot of his substantial bat. Finally, Fielder’s ISO (isolated power or the extra bases Fielder averages per AB) is .260, compared to Martinez’ still solid but significantly smaller .168. Incidentally, according to the ZiPS projection system (as calculated by ESPNs Dan Szymborski, Fielder should experience some drop-off in his numbers from his last few monster-years at hitter friendly Miller Park, to the tune of a predicted 275/394/504 line next year, with 33 HR and 97 RBI.

Essentially, for at least the 2012 season the Tigers have replaced a 'for average' hitting RBI machine with a power hitting RBI machine. It will be interesting to watch this shifting dynamic as Fielder adapts to a new team, city, league and ballpark. With Gerald Laird providing at least adequate backup for Alex Avila at catcher, the addition of Fielder, at least from a power perspective, gives the Tigers a superior bat but production wise they are essentially a straight swap. Tiger’s fans, as Jerry Crasnick points out will not be worrying about future potential payroll issues and fielding positions, they will be looking forward to 2013, when their team will be fielding THE elite 3/4/5 hitting combination in baseball. Fielder gives the Tigers a good chance to compete deep into September year and perhaps beyond. One thing is for certain, if the Tigers can sure up the back end of their rotation, they could be a dominant force in a weak AL Central for the next few seasons.