Well Michael Cuddyer’s tenure in Minnesota is over. After 11 seasons with the club that drafted him, he signed a 3 year $31 million pact with the Rockies. While Cuddyer’s departure will undoubtedly sadden many Twins fans; his leaving will ultimately leave the organization in a better place than if he stayed.
There is no doubt that the Rockies over paid for Cuddyer. Though he has served as a model of consistency for the Twins in a lineup that has been frequently bitten by the injury bug, his wage demands were unrealistic for an organization whose clubhouse is aggressively pursuing a philosophy of returning the club to competitiveness immediately in 2012 rather then rebuilding altogether.
Twins fans, who have often begrudged their own brass for not being aggressive enough in the free-agent market, cannot possibly voice those complaints during the beginning of Terry Ryan’s second stint as the club’s GM. In his first 6 weeks Ryan has strengthened the Twins anemic offense by signing Ryan Doumit for 1 year $3 million, sured up a leaky middle infield by signing Jamey Carroll to a 2 year $6.5 million contract and now adding right handed power and an immediate replacement for Cuddyer in Willingham, locking him up through the 2014 season for $21 million, a $9 million saving on Cuddyer and giving the Twins two supplemental draft picks as compensation for Cuddyer signing with the Rockies. For an organization that does not have consistent strength throughout its farm system, having 5 picks (6 if Jason Kubel departs) in the first 60 is exactly what the organization needs.
From a statistical standpoint Willingham and Cuddyer are almost identical. Willingham owns a .361 career OBP compared to Cuddyer’s .343 and indeed, Willingham own slight advantages in SLG and OPS throughout his career. Willingham owns a significant advantage in Isolated power, his career ISO of .214 bettering Cuddyer’s .180, Parker Hagerman’s article summed up exactly why Willingham may be ideally suited to Target field’s left field power ally, as opposed to Cuddyer’s tendency to spread the ball around the field. Willingham is the logical choice for the Twins.
With the Twins payroll projected to sit at around $100 million is bringing Kubel back the right move? While there is major uncertainty going forward surrounding the health of the M&M boys the Twins pitching depth seems to be the biggest remaining void on the 40 man roster. Names that have been thrown around as additions to the rotation are Jeff Francis and Joel Pineiro, while the bullpen needs to be completely revamped after the Twins non-tendered Jose Mijares and lost Joe Nathan to the Rangers.
Looking at Jeff Francis major league stats paint an interesting picture. Francis owns a career ERA of 4.78, a career WHIP of 1.43, walks 2.8/9 innings and struck out only 4.5 batters/9 innings last season at Kansas City. Pineiro walks and strikes out a similar amount, but has a slight advantage in career ERA 4.41 and WHIP 1.35. Pineiro had a miserable 2011, logging a 5.13 ERA but being subject to an above average BAbip of .324 and an ERA+ of only 74. In his previous 2 seasons with the Cardinals and the Angels, Pineiro combined for an ERA of 3.67 and a WHIP of 1.19 while logging 366.1 innings compared to Francis’ ERA of 5.00 and WHIP of 1.42 over the same seasons. While Francis spent one of those seasons at home run Mecca Coors field, Pineiro’s ground ball style and potential change of scenery to Target Field may put him in line for a rebound year and make him a solid contributor to the Twins 2012 rotation should they decide to pursue him.
Showing posts with label Cuddyer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cuddyer. Show all posts
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Friday, December 9, 2011
The Outfield - Question Mark???
Cuddyer??? Span??? Revere??? Kubel??? You get the idea. So many questions surround the Twins outfield this off-season. Michael Cuddyer remains the top free-agent priority of the front office, with a 3 year offer on the table worth around $24 million.
Let’s start with #5. Cuddyer is rightfully a favorite with Twins faithful, having been in the organization his whole career, producing an excellently consistent .272 BA, 20 HR and 82 RBI average as well as a 272/343/451 line over 11 big league seasons. Add this to his versatility, having played at every outfield position besides SS in his major league career as well as making a relief appearance pitching for the Twins beleaguered bullpen in 2011 and he is a valuable weapon indeed.
Cuddyer is also a renowned positive locker room influence, a power bat from the right side of the plate – the list goes on. It seems unlikely that the Twins will be able to keep both Cuddyer and Kubel, who both rejected arbitration offers to test the waters of free agency. The Twins front office is waiting with baited breath on the decision of Cuddyer, who has drawn interest from financial power houses such as the Red Sox and Phillies, as well as other suitors such as the Rockies and Dodgers.
Span will be another key piece if the Twins are to challenge for the Central in 2012. Owning a career OBP of .361, having an excellent glove, good speed and a friendly contract that will keep him under team control until 2015, Span was another huge loss for the Twins in 2011 missing 92 games with concussion symptoms that had Twins fans asking if they were experiencing Groundhog Day. Span is a table setter at the top of the lineup and one of the truly underrated lead-off hitters in baseball.
Ben Revere made a solid start to his big league career, leading the big league team with 34 steals (a Twins rookie record). While the youngster is not without his flaws, having a much below average arm, he makes up for it with excellent range. Revere needs to work in the off-season on strengthening the areas in which his talent lies. With very little power Revere is a slap hitter with speed who has to be consistently on base to be truly effective. In 481 plate appearances with the big league club in 2011 Revere only had 26 walks, good for a BB% (amount his plate appearances result in a walk) of 5.4%, well below the league average of 8.3%. Revere on average saw 3.52 pitches per plate appearance in 2011, compared to a league average of 3.82, with a typical top of the order players’ number being a little higher still, Denard Span’s career pitches per plate appearance being 3.84, for example.
Despite having excellent speed Revere also needs to improve his base stealing. He was thrown out 21% of the time or 9 out of 43 attempts. Elite base-runners typically have a stolen base % in the low to mid 80s. If Revere can improve his OBP and SB% he and Span could form a dangerously speedy 1-2 tandem at the top of the Twins lineup while covering a huge amount of ground in the outfield.
If Cuddyer does re-sign with the Twins it seems that Jason Kubel, another career long Twin will be on his way out the door. Financially it is impossible for the Twins to resign both (especially given that Terry Ryan has also sighted the bullpen and rotation as other areas he would like to strengthen). Kubel was another Twin who struggled to stay healthy in 2011, taking the field in only 99 contests. He made solid power contribution across the board but since his break out year in 2009 when he posted a line of 300/369/539 with 28 HR and 103 RBI; he has struggled to live up to his talent level. Having Kubel on the roster instead of Cuddyer would add the problem of all three of the Twins power bats being lefties. Kubel has been a solid power contributor in the last 4 seasons but does not seem destined to break out and achieve the super-stardom that many predicted for the South Dakota native early in his career before injury slowed his progress to the big league level.
Josh Willingham is a name that has been bandied around as a potential replacement for Cuddyer should he seek pastures new. Willingham set career highs in RBI 98 and HR 29 but is either on par or slightly inferior to Cuddyer in almost every other statistical category, including in the field, while also being unfamiliar with the Twins personnel and system. The shape and balance of the outfield in 2012 will undoubtedly rest on the decision of #5.
Let’s start with #5. Cuddyer is rightfully a favorite with Twins faithful, having been in the organization his whole career, producing an excellently consistent .272 BA, 20 HR and 82 RBI average as well as a 272/343/451 line over 11 big league seasons. Add this to his versatility, having played at every outfield position besides SS in his major league career as well as making a relief appearance pitching for the Twins beleaguered bullpen in 2011 and he is a valuable weapon indeed.
Cuddyer is also a renowned positive locker room influence, a power bat from the right side of the plate – the list goes on. It seems unlikely that the Twins will be able to keep both Cuddyer and Kubel, who both rejected arbitration offers to test the waters of free agency. The Twins front office is waiting with baited breath on the decision of Cuddyer, who has drawn interest from financial power houses such as the Red Sox and Phillies, as well as other suitors such as the Rockies and Dodgers.
Span will be another key piece if the Twins are to challenge for the Central in 2012. Owning a career OBP of .361, having an excellent glove, good speed and a friendly contract that will keep him under team control until 2015, Span was another huge loss for the Twins in 2011 missing 92 games with concussion symptoms that had Twins fans asking if they were experiencing Groundhog Day. Span is a table setter at the top of the lineup and one of the truly underrated lead-off hitters in baseball.
Ben Revere made a solid start to his big league career, leading the big league team with 34 steals (a Twins rookie record). While the youngster is not without his flaws, having a much below average arm, he makes up for it with excellent range. Revere needs to work in the off-season on strengthening the areas in which his talent lies. With very little power Revere is a slap hitter with speed who has to be consistently on base to be truly effective. In 481 plate appearances with the big league club in 2011 Revere only had 26 walks, good for a BB% (amount his plate appearances result in a walk) of 5.4%, well below the league average of 8.3%. Revere on average saw 3.52 pitches per plate appearance in 2011, compared to a league average of 3.82, with a typical top of the order players’ number being a little higher still, Denard Span’s career pitches per plate appearance being 3.84, for example.
Despite having excellent speed Revere also needs to improve his base stealing. He was thrown out 21% of the time or 9 out of 43 attempts. Elite base-runners typically have a stolen base % in the low to mid 80s. If Revere can improve his OBP and SB% he and Span could form a dangerously speedy 1-2 tandem at the top of the Twins lineup while covering a huge amount of ground in the outfield.
If Cuddyer does re-sign with the Twins it seems that Jason Kubel, another career long Twin will be on his way out the door. Financially it is impossible for the Twins to resign both (especially given that Terry Ryan has also sighted the bullpen and rotation as other areas he would like to strengthen). Kubel was another Twin who struggled to stay healthy in 2011, taking the field in only 99 contests. He made solid power contribution across the board but since his break out year in 2009 when he posted a line of 300/369/539 with 28 HR and 103 RBI; he has struggled to live up to his talent level. Having Kubel on the roster instead of Cuddyer would add the problem of all three of the Twins power bats being lefties. Kubel has been a solid power contributor in the last 4 seasons but does not seem destined to break out and achieve the super-stardom that many predicted for the South Dakota native early in his career before injury slowed his progress to the big league level.
Josh Willingham is a name that has been bandied around as a potential replacement for Cuddyer should he seek pastures new. Willingham set career highs in RBI 98 and HR 29 but is either on par or slightly inferior to Cuddyer in almost every other statistical category, including in the field, while also being unfamiliar with the Twins personnel and system. The shape and balance of the outfield in 2012 will undoubtedly rest on the decision of #5.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)