Revisiting the Johan Santana Trade

We all remember the (much happier) Twins team built around names such as Joe Nathan, Tori Hunter and two-time Cy Young award winner Johan Santana. Although difficult to accept, the then small market Twins would inevitably trade Santana in order to regain some value for him rather than assuredly losing him to a free-agent market lining up to sign the premier starter on the market in 2008

Speculation was rife leading up to Santana’s trade, would the Twins be able to secure a then top prospect pitching ace in the making such as Jon Lester from the Red Sox or Phil Hughes from the Yankees. Knowing that Santana would eventually hit the free agent market, neither of the AL East powerhouse franchises bit on letting go of their then top prospects. The Twins turned to Queens and traded Santana to the Mets for a package that included Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra.

What an ugly trade it turned out to be. Carlos Gomez played out a few uneventful seasons as the Twins on again off again center fielder, punctuated by highlight reel plays in the outfield and a memorable playoff sealing run in game 163 of the 2009 season against the Tigers. Mulvey, a former 2^nd round pick of the Mets, last pitched in the majors for the Diamondbacks in 2010 and currently holds a 4.91 ERA at the Mets AA affiliate at Binghamton. Phil Humber, himself a number 3 overall pick in 2004 was quickly let go of by the Twins after consistently struggling and picked up by the Royals and eventually the White Sox. He had a descent 2011 season but despite throwing a perfect game against the Mariners in the early going in 2012, has largely struggled his way to a 6.83 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 27.2 IP. Wow, this is like the anti Pierzynski to San Francisco trade! But what about Guerra?

In 2007 Guerra was a super raw lanky 18 year old the Mets originally signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela. Indeed, Guerra’s raw ability was so promising Baseball Prospectus rated him the #35 prospect in MLB prior to the 2008 season. Fast forward five year and Guerra has filled out. Now 6’5 and 245 lbs, his dominance is beginning to match his imposing physicality. After struggling mightily in 2010 and 2011 with AAA Rochester and AA New Britain respectively, Guerra is putting it together so far this season. Starting the season at New Britain, Guerra was quickly promoted after giving up just 1 ER in 12.2 IP, having a WHIP of 0.474 and overpowering hitters to the tune of a 10.7 SO/9. 

Guerra has shown no sign of slowing down in the early going at AAA Rochester. In 9 IP, Guerra has yet to give up a run, surrendering just 6 hits, good for a WHIP of 0.778 and maintaining an excellent 10 SO/9. Guerra’s has held opposing hitters to a paltry .119 BA at AA New Britain and a still dominant .188 at AAA Rochester.

Looking at some of Guerra’s advanced metrics and his stuff yields just as impressive results. He has maintained a FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 1.66 at AA and 1.98 at AAA Rochester. Guerra’s velocity has receded slightly since he was a talented raw 17 year old, but his fastball still hits in the low 90s and can reach back for mid-90s heat. Guerra also has a plus slider and an excellent biting curve and has been working on developing his change up. If his early performance this year is any indication, expect to see Guerra in a Twins uniform if any member of the bullpen starts to consistently struggle. Given the Twins rough start to the season, it’s great to see at least one young arm that has the potential to succeed at the big league level.

Bullpen Shape Pt 2

Lefty Specialist – Brian Duensing

With the rotation seemingly filled out with Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn and Marquis, Duensing seems destined for a return to the bullpen, where he has previously excelled. Thank goodness, Duensing was the definition of ineffective against right handed hitters last season, giving up an eye-popping .330 BA against and 20 HR in just 470 ABs. Looking back to 2010 where he primarily fulfilled the role he will in 2012 for the Twins, as a left handed specialist out of the bullpen, the southpaw had the number of most of the lefties he faced. In 2010 he held opposing lefties to just a .167 BA against and an OBP of just .217. A return to those numbers will be important for the Twins after the loss of Jose Mijares, who despite having various fitness and locker room problems had functioned effectively as the Twins lefty specialist since the departure of Dennys Reyes.

Longman – Anthony Swarzak

Swarzak is a prototypical long-man. He had a solid 2011 in which he posted an ERA of 4.32, showed good control 2.3 BB/9 and kept the ball inside the park, albeit at cavernous Target Field, 0.8 HR/9. These stats solidified Swarzak’s position in a weak Twins bullpen and as a possible spot starter. It will be interesting to see if he gets a shot at the rotation should Nick Blackburn consistently struggle again in 2012. If he does he will need to improve upon his 4.9 SO/9 to have any hope of holding down a starting job, especially with Liam Hendriks knocking on the door at AAA Rochester.

The Question Mark – Alex Burnett

Burnett is a frustrating piece of the Twins bullpen picture. He has solid stuff including a fastball that can reach the 93-94 mph range but the one thing he has proven in his first two big-league seasons is that he doesn’t know how to use it. Burnett has shown remarkable consistency in those two seasons, unfortunately for the Twins, it has been consistently bad. Between 2010 and 2011, Burnett has logged just under 100 innings, with a horrendous 1.48 WHIP, poor control 4 BB/9 and only an average ability to put hitters away 6.4 SO/9. Burnett is still the right side of 25 but this might be his last full-season to impress the Twins before they look in another direction for reliable bullpen arms. He can certainly throw; he has this season to show he can pitch too.

The Rest - 2 spots remaining

With 2 spots remaining this is perhaps the area Twins fans feel the most frustration with going into camp. There were a bevy of experienced and dependable righties on the free agent market this off-season (Dan Wheeler who was signed by the Indians to a minor league deal in particular is of note, as was the Dodgers Todd Coffey), however the Twins chose to let their internal options battle it out for the remaining spots. Let’s take a look at the possibilities.

Kyle Waldrop - 5.73 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 11 IP in 2011

Lester Oliveros - 4.05 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 13 IP with the Twins in 2011 (nearly 5 BB/9 will do that!)

Scott Diamond - 5.08 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 39 IP with the Twins in 2011

Terry Doyle - 2.94 ERA and an excellent 1.18 WHIP in 422 minor league innings over the last 4 years. Doyle was the Twins Rule 5 draft selection this winter and will certainly go into camp with a chance at making the pen.

The Twins also have several non-roster invitees with big league experience, including Jason Bulger, Phil Dumatrait and Jared Burton. The Twins have certainly left their bullpen battle open-ended heading into spring, understandable given their performance last season. While they can expect to have at least a partial bounce back year after solidifying their defense this off-season, the front office may regret not grabbing one more veteran right handed arm to provide stability and leadership in an AL Central with increasingly formidable hitting.

Bullpen Shape Pt 1

The bullpen was a constant source of pain and humiliation for Twins fans last season, to deliver the point, with a bullet, the Twins bullpen was the worst in the Majors, with an ERA of 4.58, allowing opponents an average of .270 against them, striking out a pathetic 323 in 461 innings of work. The beleaguered corps also had a WHIP of 1.46, stuck out just 6.3 per 9 innings and was generally a shambles. Looking forward to 2012 both the personnel and performance of the pen is hard to predict, but the Twins, who have always prided themselves on excellent relief pitching, may witness a much more mediocre bullpen in 2012, with rebound years, increasing experience and some successful pickups.

Closer - Matt Capps

Few relievers have garnered the ire of Twins fans in the way Capps did last year. Truth be told, while he had a poor season, Twins fans were frustrated after his dominant 2010, particularly in the wake of Joe Nathan’s slow return to form after Tommy John surgery; and who can blame them? Capps went from an excellent 2.47 ERA to a Kevin Gregg-esque 4.25 in 2011. Interestingly his WHIP and BB/9 actually decreased, so why the drop-off? Capps K/9 fell from 7.3 in 2010 to a miserable 4.7 in 2012. Capps BaBIP was also an incredibly friendly .265 in 2011, compared to .317 in 2010. So what gives? Other than the strikeout decrease and a jump in the amount of HRs Capps surrendered in 2011, the only other figure that jumps out is his improved control. Capps walked just 4.7% of batter faced in 2011 (the MLB average is 8.5%); perhaps this increased strike zone presence (combined with Capps’ very average closer stuff) led to his massively down year. Look for a rebound from Capps, who may not hit the heights of 2010 but should split the difference of a stellar 10’ and a disappointing 11’.

LH Set-Up Man – Glen Perkins

Perkins was the highlight of the pen last year, having a breakout year and exhibiting simply dominant stuff consistently for the Twins. Despite petering out at the end of the season, he was simply outstanding. Perkins was simply nasty in 2011, striking out 65 in 61 innings in 2011, giving up just 0.3 home runs per 9 innings and holding opposing hitters to a batting average of just .244. Perkins was also a bright spot in a Twins bullpen generally incapable of striking out opposing hitters (Perkins made 25% of opposing hitter’s whiff last season, compared to the MLB average of just under 18%, elite stuff indeed). Perkins velocity was up significantly from 2010; look for a similarly outstanding contribution in 2012 with a man who may well be the next long-term solution at closer.

RH Set-Up Man – Joel Zumaya

Bringing Zumaya on board was a low-risk, high reward move by Terry Ryan. Zumaya offers an elite power arm, although he hasn’t been able to stay on the field since his rookie season of 2006. Zumaya was a beast his rookie season, with 10.5 SO/9, a WAR of 3.4 and holding opposing hitters to a .187 average. Since then he hasn’t managed more than 38 innings and despite logging solid numbers in fits and spurts, has failed to deliver the type of results both his arm and his stuff had promised. Zumaya could be an important power arm in the Twins bullpen in 2012 if healthy but Twins fans should temper their expectations in him becoming a late innings stabilizing force. Don’t be surprised if you see the headlines which must make Zumaya feel like he is stuck in Groundhog Day ‘Zumaya headed to the DL’, the chances are high.

Bullpen - An Expected Fall from Grace

Quite simply put, the Twins bullpen was he worst in baseball in 2011. While this came as a shock to many Twins fans that were used to a consistent level of excellence from their relief pitching corps, it really should not have.

The Twins let Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes walk after the 2010 season, a foursome that have combined for a combined career ERA of 3.50 and a combined career WHIP of 1.24. They were not actively replaced, the Twins choose instead to go with organizational options such as Jim Hoey (acquired on the J.J Hardy trade and waived this off-season), Alex Burnett (incredibly average over his first 3 seasons), Chuck James, Jeff Manship and Dusty Hughes. The result was a bullpen that ranked dead last in the majors, with a combined ERA of 4.51 and an opponent batting average of .270 – eek. The Twins corps also allowed opponents a .350 OBP, had a WHIP of 1.46 and a K/BB of only 1.66.

Remarkably the bullpen, perhaps the most bitter tasting of all the failures of the Twins last year, especially given its previous years of consistent success in the one area as yet unaddressed by Terry Ryan his off-season. While the middle infield, outfield and starting pitching have undergone some personnel change (with the recent addition of dependable ground ball machine Jason Marquis), the Twins bullpen if the season were to start today, might look something like this;

Matt Capps – Closer
Glen Perkins – Setup
Anthony Swarzak – Long relief
Brian Duensing – Lefty specialist

The remaining platoon would be chosen from the likes of;

Alex Burnett
Lester Oliveros
Kyle Waldrop
Scott Diamond
Terry Doyle

The core of this bullpen is certainly solid. Matt Capps, while perhaps not as spectacular as his 2010 numbers made him look, is certainly a good deal more capable than his 2011 made him look. Glen Perkins proved himself an outstanding setup man last season, despite a sky high BAbip of .333. Duensing has proven historically that he can be highly effective at retiring lefties and Swarzak produced some solid starts for the big league club last season.

The questions surround the remaining spots in the bullpen, the candidates to fill them being plagued by either inexperience, or mediocrity at the major league level. The Twins could certainly use a veteran presence with the remaining $1-2 million left in their budget to sure u a bullpen lacking both experience and confidence.