Twins Dealt Poor Hand as Trade Deadline Approaches

With the July 31^st trade deadline fast approaching, trade talk is heating up and will continue to do so in the wake of the All-Star break in Kansas City. Given the Twins current position as AL Central cellar dwellers and 11 games back of the currently leading White Sox they look to be sellers in a market with more than its fair share of trade talk and speculation as a result of more teams in playoff contention given the additional wild card position available in each league beginning this season. So what position are the Twins in to make deals that will have significant impact on an organization which has many needs but is particularly bereft of high quality major league ready pitching?

Many blogs have been expecting a large scale house cleaning effort by the Twins in the coming weeks with the likes of Texas, Toronto, Atlanta and Cleveland all being touted as potential trade partners for the Twins, to name but a few. The Twins however find themselves with few quality names to trade and will certainly not be able to acquire any blue chip prospects, due to a variety of extenuating circumstances.

Carl Pavano was initially a name being mentioned after the Twins awful start but with injury derailing his season, will not be dealt in the buildup to the deadline. Another name that has been strongly linked to trade discussion has been that of Denard Span. The consistent on base machine has been paying well throughout this season and the Nationals have shown interest in Span over a few consecutive seasons. The emergence of Bryce Harper has certainly diminished this possibility as his .282/.354/.472 slash line through 63 games outshine Span’s own line (.270/.334/.375), indeed Harper also has more HR, SB and RBI than Span, in 15 less games played.

Justin Morneau is another Twin who has been linked with a number of teams, most notably the Toronto Blue Jays. Morneau’s first half numbers simply don’t do enough to entice teams to part with significant prospects. The 2006 MVP was held to a .246 average through the first half of the season, with 11 HR and 38 RBI and despite playing in 65 games (just 4 shy of last years total), his history with chronic post-concussion syndrome, middling form, inability to hit the ball to the opposite field this season and bloated contract (in which he is due $14 million next season) make him less likely to be dealt. Matt Capps remains a likely trade chip as the Twins have a $6 million option on him in 2013 which they are unlikely to pick up. Despite the fact that Capps has pitched well this season his DL stint prior to the all star break derailed his momentum in which he had given up just 3 ER in his 8.1 innings pitched.

Finally there is Francisco Liriano. On Monday FOX sports Ken Rosenthal reported that teams were ‘wary’ of trading for Liriano, despite an ERA of 2.74 in 8 starts since his return from the bullpen including 52 strike outs in just 49.1 innings. Rosenthal went on to report that it would be unlikely that teams would part for significant prospects for Liriano, who many teams see as a ‘bullpen option’. With Liriano becoming a free agent at the end of the year, the Twins do not have much leverage or a significant history of consistency from their mercurial ace to barter with, despite several reports that the Braves have scouted Liriano’s last several starts.

The Twins could be in a far stronger position approaching the trade deadline but impending free agency, injury history and a lack of form has made it probable that the return they receive on any trades made will be moderate at best, stay tuned for further updates.

Bullpen Shape Pt 1

The bullpen was a constant source of pain and humiliation for Twins fans last season, to deliver the point, with a bullet, the Twins bullpen was the worst in the Majors, with an ERA of 4.58, allowing opponents an average of .270 against them, striking out a pathetic 323 in 461 innings of work. The beleaguered corps also had a WHIP of 1.46, stuck out just 6.3 per 9 innings and was generally a shambles. Looking forward to 2012 both the personnel and performance of the pen is hard to predict, but the Twins, who have always prided themselves on excellent relief pitching, may witness a much more mediocre bullpen in 2012, with rebound years, increasing experience and some successful pickups.

Closer - Matt Capps

Few relievers have garnered the ire of Twins fans in the way Capps did last year. Truth be told, while he had a poor season, Twins fans were frustrated after his dominant 2010, particularly in the wake of Joe Nathan’s slow return to form after Tommy John surgery; and who can blame them? Capps went from an excellent 2.47 ERA to a Kevin Gregg-esque 4.25 in 2011. Interestingly his WHIP and BB/9 actually decreased, so why the drop-off? Capps K/9 fell from 7.3 in 2010 to a miserable 4.7 in 2012. Capps BaBIP was also an incredibly friendly .265 in 2011, compared to .317 in 2010. So what gives? Other than the strikeout decrease and a jump in the amount of HRs Capps surrendered in 2011, the only other figure that jumps out is his improved control. Capps walked just 4.7% of batter faced in 2011 (the MLB average is 8.5%); perhaps this increased strike zone presence (combined with Capps’ very average closer stuff) led to his massively down year. Look for a rebound from Capps, who may not hit the heights of 2010 but should split the difference of a stellar 10’ and a disappointing 11’.

LH Set-Up Man – Glen Perkins

Perkins was the highlight of the pen last year, having a breakout year and exhibiting simply dominant stuff consistently for the Twins. Despite petering out at the end of the season, he was simply outstanding. Perkins was simply nasty in 2011, striking out 65 in 61 innings in 2011, giving up just 0.3 home runs per 9 innings and holding opposing hitters to a batting average of just .244. Perkins was also a bright spot in a Twins bullpen generally incapable of striking out opposing hitters (Perkins made 25% of opposing hitter’s whiff last season, compared to the MLB average of just under 18%, elite stuff indeed). Perkins velocity was up significantly from 2010; look for a similarly outstanding contribution in 2012 with a man who may well be the next long-term solution at closer.

RH Set-Up Man – Joel Zumaya

Bringing Zumaya on board was a low-risk, high reward move by Terry Ryan. Zumaya offers an elite power arm, although he hasn’t been able to stay on the field since his rookie season of 2006. Zumaya was a beast his rookie season, with 10.5 SO/9, a WAR of 3.4 and holding opposing hitters to a .187 average. Since then he hasn’t managed more than 38 innings and despite logging solid numbers in fits and spurts, has failed to deliver the type of results both his arm and his stuff had promised. Zumaya could be an important power arm in the Twins bullpen in 2012 if healthy but Twins fans should temper their expectations in him becoming a late innings stabilizing force. Don’t be surprised if you see the headlines which must make Zumaya feel like he is stuck in Groundhog Day ‘Zumaya headed to the DL’, the chances are high.

Bullpen - An Expected Fall from Grace

Quite simply put, the Twins bullpen was he worst in baseball in 2011. While this came as a shock to many Twins fans that were used to a consistent level of excellence from their relief pitching corps, it really should not have.

The Twins let Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes walk after the 2010 season, a foursome that have combined for a combined career ERA of 3.50 and a combined career WHIP of 1.24. They were not actively replaced, the Twins choose instead to go with organizational options such as Jim Hoey (acquired on the J.J Hardy trade and waived this off-season), Alex Burnett (incredibly average over his first 3 seasons), Chuck James, Jeff Manship and Dusty Hughes. The result was a bullpen that ranked dead last in the majors, with a combined ERA of 4.51 and an opponent batting average of .270 – eek. The Twins corps also allowed opponents a .350 OBP, had a WHIP of 1.46 and a K/BB of only 1.66.

Remarkably the bullpen, perhaps the most bitter tasting of all the failures of the Twins last year, especially given its previous years of consistent success in the one area as yet unaddressed by Terry Ryan his off-season. While the middle infield, outfield and starting pitching have undergone some personnel change (with the recent addition of dependable ground ball machine Jason Marquis), the Twins bullpen if the season were to start today, might look something like this;

Matt Capps – Closer
Glen Perkins – Setup
Anthony Swarzak – Long relief
Brian Duensing – Lefty specialist

The remaining platoon would be chosen from the likes of;

Alex Burnett
Lester Oliveros
Kyle Waldrop
Scott Diamond
Terry Doyle

The core of this bullpen is certainly solid. Matt Capps, while perhaps not as spectacular as his 2010 numbers made him look, is certainly a good deal more capable than his 2011 made him look. Glen Perkins proved himself an outstanding setup man last season, despite a sky high BAbip of .333. Duensing has proven historically that he can be highly effective at retiring lefties and Swarzak produced some solid starts for the big league club last season.

The questions surround the remaining spots in the bullpen, the candidates to fill them being plagued by either inexperience, or mediocrity at the major league level. The Twins could certainly use a veteran presence with the remaining $1-2 million left in their budget to sure u a bullpen lacking both experience and confidence.